技术经济
技術經濟
기술경제
Technical economy
2012年
9期
51-58
,共8页
程云鹤%齐晓安%汪克亮%杨力
程雲鶴%齊曉安%汪剋亮%楊力
정운학%제효안%왕극량%양력
碳排放%碳减排%低碳发展%低碳经济%连续Malmquist—Luenberger指数%全要素生产率%核密度
碳排放%碳減排%低碳髮展%低碳經濟%連續Malmquist—Luenberger指數%全要素生產率%覈密度
탄배방%탄감배%저탄발전%저탄경제%련속Malmquist—Luenberger지수%전요소생산솔%핵밀도
carbon emission%carbon emission reduction%low carbon development%low carbon economy%sequence Malmquist-Luenberger index%total factor productivity%Kernel density
在全要素框架下运用基于连续前沿的Malmquist-Luenberger生产率增长指数方法，估算了1987—2009年中国28个省（自治区、直辖市）的低碳全要素生产率、技术进步和效率改善，对中国低碳全要素生产率的总体发展、区域差异进行实证分析。然后，利用核密度估计，对累积相对低碳全要素生产率增长、累积相对技术进步和累积相对效率改善做分布动态演进分析。结果表明：考察期内中国整体的低碳全要素生产率趋于上升，但上升幅度逐渐减小；东、中、西三大区域的低碳全要素生产率存在显著差异，呈东高西低的增长格局；东、中部地区的低碳全要素生产率提升是技术进步和效率改善共同推进的结果；西部地区的低碳全要素生产率提升仅靠技术进步驱动，效率改善存在退步迹象；省际间的低碳全要素生产率呈一定程度的“俱乐部收敛”特征，技术进步有明显的“追赶效应”。
在全要素框架下運用基于連續前沿的Malmquist-Luenberger生產率增長指數方法，估算瞭1987—2009年中國28箇省（自治區、直轄市）的低碳全要素生產率、技術進步和效率改善，對中國低碳全要素生產率的總體髮展、區域差異進行實證分析。然後，利用覈密度估計，對纍積相對低碳全要素生產率增長、纍積相對技術進步和纍積相對效率改善做分佈動態縯進分析。結果錶明：攷察期內中國整體的低碳全要素生產率趨于上升，但上升幅度逐漸減小；東、中、西三大區域的低碳全要素生產率存在顯著差異，呈東高西低的增長格跼；東、中部地區的低碳全要素生產率提升是技術進步和效率改善共同推進的結果；西部地區的低碳全要素生產率提升僅靠技術進步驅動，效率改善存在退步跡象；省際間的低碳全要素生產率呈一定程度的“俱樂部收斂”特徵，技術進步有明顯的“追趕效應”。
재전요소광가하운용기우련속전연적Malmquist-Luenberger생산솔증장지수방법，고산료1987—2009년중국28개성（자치구、직할시）적저탄전요소생산솔、기술진보화효솔개선，대중국저탄전요소생산솔적총체발전、구역차이진행실증분석。연후，이용핵밀도고계，대루적상대저탄전요소생산솔증장、루적상대기술진보화루적상대효솔개선주분포동태연진분석。결과표명：고찰기내중국정체적저탄전요소생산솔추우상승，단상승폭도축점감소；동、중、서삼대구역적저탄전요소생산솔존재현저차이，정동고서저적증장격국；동、중부지구적저탄전요소생산솔제승시기술진보화효솔개선공동추진적결과；서부지구적저탄전요소생산솔제승부고기술진보구동，효솔개선존재퇴보적상；성제간적저탄전요소생산솔정일정정도적“구악부수렴”특정，기술진보유명현적“추간효응”。
This paper calculates the growth of total factor productivity under low-carbon constraint, technical progress and efficiency change of carbon dioxide emissions of 28 provinces in the period of 1987-2009 by the sequential Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index method, and ana- lyzes the dynamic change of total factor productivity under low-carbon constraint in whole China and the regional difference among eastern,cen- tral and western regions. Then it investigates the dynamics of whole distribution of cumulative relative total factor productivity growth under low-carbon constraint, cumulative relative technical progress and cumulative relative efficiency change by the Kernel density estimation. The em- pirical results show as follows:total factor productivity growth under low-carbon constraint has been improved in whole China while the growth is decreasing year by year; there are significant differences in total factor productivity growth under low-carbon constraint among three regions, and the pattern is characterized by the high growth of eastern region and the low growth of western region,the improvement of total factor pro- ductivity growth under low-carbon constraint in eastern and central regions is the result of technical progress and efficiency change working to- gether ; that in western region only relies on technical progress,and efficiency change exists degradation sign; total factor productivity growth un- der low-carbon constraint takes on a certain degree of "convergence club" features, and technical progress has obvious "catching-up" effect in China.
