CAJ | 학술논문

以致灾因子、承灾体和相互作用作为研究非常规突发事件链式关系的出发点，分别借助集对分析理论和模糊专家评定理论给出了动态致灾因子的危险性联系度、承灾体的易损性联系度以及随时间变化的转移矩阵。利用时间序列分析理论和动力学理论建立了随着时间变化的动态非常规突发事件链式模型，最后给出了基于时间关系的动态非常规突发事件综合风险分析评定方法，并通过算例给予验证。
이치재인자、승재체화상호작용작위연구비상규돌발사건련식관계적출발점，분별차조집대분석이론화모호전가평정이론급출료동태치재인자적위험성련계도、승재체적역손성련계도이급수시간변화적전이구진。이용시간서렬분석이론화동역학이론건립료수착시간변화적동태비상규돌발사건련식모형，최후급출료기우시간관계적동태비상규돌발사건종합풍험분석평정방법，병통과산례급여험증。
Through using the hazard formative factors, hazard affected bodies and mutual functions as the starting point for studying the relationship of unconventional emergency chain, the dynamic risk contact degree of the hazard formative factors, the vulnerability connection degree of the hazard affected bodies and the transfer matrixes changed over time were given by using set pair analysis theory and the fuzzy expert evaluation theory. The dynamic unconventional emergency chain model was also established by using the time - series analysis theory and the dynamic theory. At last, the dynamically evaluation method of comprehensive risk analysis of unconventional emergency related on time is given and verified by an example.