CAJ | 학술논문

采用序贯蒙特卡洛模拟方法，分析了含单相光伏和三相光伏并网系统的不对称辐射形配电网的三相随机潮流计算。其中，考虑了天气的随机变化，对太阳能辐射进行逐时模拟，计及了光伏阵列效率的逐时变化、光伏阵列的有效光照面积、最大功率点跟踪和逆变器效率及整个光伏发电系统的可靠性等，对并网光伏发电系统输出进行逐时随机模拟。采用时变负荷模型并计及其随机性，编制了含光伏并网系统的配电网三相随机潮流计算程序。实际算例验证了所述方法的可行性和实用性。
채용서관몽특잡락모의방법，분석료함단상광복화삼상광복병망계통적불대칭복사형배전망적삼상수궤조류계산。기중，고필료천기적수궤변화，대태양능복사진행축시모의，계급료광복진렬효솔적축시변화、광복진렬적유효광조면적、최대공솔점근종화역변기효솔급정개광복발전계통적가고성등，대병망광복발전계통수출진행축시수궤모의。채용시변부하모형병계급기수궤성，편제료함광복병망계통적배전망삼상수궤조류계산정서。실제산례험증료소술방법적가행성화실용성。
A method of three-phase probabilistic power flow for distribution systems with single-phase and three-phase gridconnected photovoltaic （PV） systems is introduced using sequential Monte Carlo techniques. The hourly output power of PV system is simulated considering solar irradiance, random change of weather, efficiency and effective sunlight area of PV arrays, efficiency of maximum power point tracking （MPPT） and inverter, and the reliability of overall PV system. The time-varying load model with randomness is incorporated in the probabilistic power flow and a program is developed. Case studies verify the feasibility and applicability of the method.