气象与环境科学
氣象與環境科學
기상여배경과학
METEOROLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
2012年
1期
49-55
,共7页
干旱指数CI%初夏旱%伏旱%西太平洋副热带高压%厄尔尼诺%拉尼娜
榦旱指數CI%初夏旱%伏旱%西太平洋副熱帶高壓%阨爾尼諾%拉尼娜
간한지수CI%초하한%복한%서태평양부열대고압%액이니낙%랍니나
CI drought index%early summer drought%midsummer drought%western Pacific subtrop-ical high%E1 Nino%La Nina
利用1961-2010年河南省103站降水量数据，并结合综合气象干旱指数（CI），分析河南省夏季干旱的时空分布特征，及副高、厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜与河南夏季干旱的关系。研究表明：1）初夏和盛夏降水量都有上升趋势，上升率分别为6．065mm／10a和7．505mm／10a，初夏旱和初夏重旱出现的概率分别为44％和22％，伏旱和伏旱重旱出现的概率分别为20％和0。2）1961--2010年，河南6个分区初夏降水量都呈增加趋势，初夏干旱日数6个区域都呈减少趋势；盛夏降水量除豫北呈减少趋势外，其他5个区域都呈增加趋势，干旱日数6个区域都呈减少趋势。3）河南初夏旱年和伏旱年高纬度冷空气活动少且不易到达河南，副高偏弱。4）7月副高异常偏西时，河南盛夏一般降水偏多；从降水距平百分率上来看，拉尼娜次年初夏干旱的几率较大。
利用1961-2010年河南省103站降水量數據，併結閤綜閤氣象榦旱指數（CI），分析河南省夏季榦旱的時空分佈特徵，及副高、阨爾尼諾和拉尼娜與河南夏季榦旱的關繫。研究錶明：1）初夏和盛夏降水量都有上升趨勢，上升率分彆為6．065mm／10a和7．505mm／10a，初夏旱和初夏重旱齣現的概率分彆為44％和22％，伏旱和伏旱重旱齣現的概率分彆為20％和0。2）1961--2010年，河南6箇分區初夏降水量都呈增加趨勢，初夏榦旱日數6箇區域都呈減少趨勢；盛夏降水量除豫北呈減少趨勢外，其他5箇區域都呈增加趨勢，榦旱日數6箇區域都呈減少趨勢。3）河南初夏旱年和伏旱年高緯度冷空氣活動少且不易到達河南，副高偏弱。4）7月副高異常偏西時，河南盛夏一般降水偏多；從降水距平百分率上來看，拉尼娜次年初夏榦旱的幾率較大。
이용1961-2010년하남성103참강수량수거，병결합종합기상간한지수（CI），분석하남성하계간한적시공분포특정，급부고、액이니낙화랍니나여하남하계간한적관계。연구표명：1）초하화성하강수량도유상승추세，상승솔분별위6．065mm／10a화7．505mm／10a，초하한화초하중한출현적개솔분별위44％화22％，복한화복한중한출현적개솔분별위20％화0。2）1961--2010년，하남6개분구초하강수량도정증가추세，초하간한일수6개구역도정감소추세；성하강수량제예북정감소추세외，기타5개구역도정증가추세，간한일수6개구역도정감소추세。3）하남초하한년화복한년고위도랭공기활동소차불역도체하남，부고편약。4）7월부고이상편서시，하남성하일반강수편다；종강수거평백분솔상래간，랍니나차년초하간한적궤솔교대。
Based on the precipitation data of 103 dex, temporal-spatial features of the summer drought drought and western Pacific subtropical high, E1 Nino, meteorological stations of 1961-2010 and CI inwas analyzed, the relationships between summer La Nina also were studied. The results are as fol-lows. 1 ） The precipitation of early summer and midsummer showed a slowly increasing trend with the rate of 6. 065 mm/10a and 7. 505 mm/10a; the probability of early summer drought and heavy early summer drought is 44% and 22% , and that of midsummer drought and heavy midsummer drought is 20% and 0. 2） The precipitation of six sub-regions of early summer showed an increasing trend, and drought days of early summer showed a decreasing trend. The precipitation of midsummer is not spatially uniform, and it exhibited decreasing trends in north, but increasing trends in the rest sub-regions of the province. Whiledrought days of midsummer showed a decreasing trend in 1961-2010. 3） The cold air is less frequently and difficult to arrive in Henan province, meanwhile western Pacific subtropical high is weaker in early summer drought and midsummer drought years. 4） The rainfall of midsummer is more than normal when western drought Pacific subtropical high is further west to its normal position, and the probability of early summer is high in La Nina next years.
