CAJ | 학술논문

通过对土石坝坝坡失稳风险的不确定性进行分析,建立了考虑设计参数模糊性和失效准则模糊性的坝坡失稳模糊风险模型,并运用蒙特卡罗方法求解其风险概率,将模糊参数进行模糊化处理后,可直接采用现有传统风险计算方法计算失事概率。结果表明,坝坡失稳风险分析中考虑了风险的模糊性使计算结果更加合理,风险评价更加符合工程实际。
통과대토석패패파실은풍험적불학정성진행분석,건립료고필설계삼수모호성화실효준칙모호성적패파실은모호풍험모형,병운용몽특잡라방법구해기풍험개솔,장모호삼수진행모호화처리후,가직접채용현유전통풍험계산방법계산실사개솔。결과표명,패파실은풍험분석중고필료풍험적모호성사계산결과경가합리,풍험평개경가부합공정실제。
Based on the uncertainty analysis for the instability risk of dam slope,the slope instability risk model is established with the fuzziness of parameters in the design and the expectation of dam＇s effective working life limit.Furthermore,Monte Carlo Method based on MATLAB is used to work out the risk probability.When all the fuzzy parameters are made to be fuzzy,the traditional methods available for calculating the risk can be used directly to work out the probability of failure.The results show that taking into account the fuzziness in the risk analysis of dam slope instability would make the calculation result more reasonable and closer to reality.