旅游论坛
旅遊論罈
여유론단
Tourism Forum
2012年
1期
98-101
,共4页
混合多项式%红色旅游%韶山旅游景区%预测
混閤多項式%紅色旅遊%韶山旅遊景區%預測
혼합다항식%홍색여유%소산여유경구%예측
mixed polynomial%red tourism%Shaoshan tourism scenic area%forecast
基于三次和四次多项式拟合模型。针对韶山红色旅游景区旅游需求人数预测问题，提出了混合多项式拟合预测模型．该模型可以解决信息呈递增趋势的问题，结果具有一定的可信度．将该模型与灰色预测模型GM（1,1）进行比较，结果表明，混合多项式拟合预测模型的平均相对误差明显要低于GM（1,1）模型，且计算代价更小．
基于三次和四次多項式擬閤模型。針對韶山紅色旅遊景區旅遊需求人數預測問題，提齣瞭混閤多項式擬閤預測模型．該模型可以解決信息呈遞增趨勢的問題，結果具有一定的可信度．將該模型與灰色預測模型GM（1,1）進行比較，結果錶明，混閤多項式擬閤預測模型的平均相對誤差明顯要低于GM（1,1）模型，且計算代價更小．
기우삼차화사차다항식의합모형。침대소산홍색여유경구여유수구인수예측문제，제출료혼합다항식의합예측모형．해모형가이해결신식정체증추세적문제，결과구유일정적가신도．장해모형여회색예측모형GM（1,1）진행비교，결과표명，혼합다항식의합예측모형적평균상대오차명현요저우GM（1,1）모형，차계산대개경소．
Based on cubic and quartic polynomial fitted models, the mixed polynomial fitted model is presented for red tourism demand forecasting in Shaoshan scenic area. The model can be used to solve problems of which information is with the trend of increasing, and the conclusion is with some extent of credibility. By comparison with GM （1, 1） model, it is shown in the result that the average relative error of the mixed polynomial fitted model is significantly smaller and more over its cost of computing is lower.
