气象研究与应用
氣象研究與應用
기상연구여응용
JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH AND APPLICATION
2012年
1期
48-51
,共4页
马筛艳%李剑萍%刘玉兰%张少波%缑晓辉
馬篩豔%李劍萍%劉玉蘭%張少波%緱曉輝
마사염%리검평%류옥란%장소파%구효휘
逐时路面温度%最高路面温度%回归分析%统计模型
逐時路麵溫度%最高路麵溫度%迴歸分析%統計模型
축시로면온도%최고로면온도%회귀분석%통계모형
hourly road surface temperature%the highest road temperature%regression analysis%statistical model
采用人工定点观测路面温度资料,分析了不同天空状况和不同材质道路的路面温度日变化特征。结果表明:路面温度具有明显的日变化特征,晴空或少云时,日出和日落时段路面温度略高于气温,中午前后路面温度变幅最大,且明显高于气温;阴雨天时,路面温度略高于气温,变化相对平缓且与气温保持较好的相关性。由于水泥和沥青不同的物理特征,沥青路面对气温的反应灵敏,水泥路面反应平缓,即水泥路面最高温度多低于沥青路面,最低温度多高于沥青路面。在此基础上应用逐步回归方法建立逐时路面温度预报模型和最高道面温度预报模型,并应用模型模拟的结果与实测路面温度作对比分析,结果表明逐时道面温度预报模型的模拟效果较好,最高道面温度预报模型误差较大,需要进一步修正和改进。
採用人工定點觀測路麵溫度資料,分析瞭不同天空狀況和不同材質道路的路麵溫度日變化特徵。結果錶明:路麵溫度具有明顯的日變化特徵,晴空或少雲時,日齣和日落時段路麵溫度略高于氣溫,中午前後路麵溫度變幅最大,且明顯高于氣溫;陰雨天時,路麵溫度略高于氣溫,變化相對平緩且與氣溫保持較好的相關性。由于水泥和瀝青不同的物理特徵,瀝青路麵對氣溫的反應靈敏,水泥路麵反應平緩,即水泥路麵最高溫度多低于瀝青路麵,最低溫度多高于瀝青路麵。在此基礎上應用逐步迴歸方法建立逐時路麵溫度預報模型和最高道麵溫度預報模型,併應用模型模擬的結果與實測路麵溫度作對比分析,結果錶明逐時道麵溫度預報模型的模擬效果較好,最高道麵溫度預報模型誤差較大,需要進一步脩正和改進。
채용인공정점관측로면온도자료,분석료불동천공상황화불동재질도로적로면온도일변화특정。결과표명:로면온도구유명현적일변화특정,청공혹소운시,일출화일락시단로면온도략고우기온,중오전후로면온도변폭최대,차명현고우기온;음우천시,로면온도략고우기온,변화상대평완차여기온보지교호적상관성。유우수니화력청불동적물리특정,력청로면대기온적반응령민,수니로면반응평완,즉수니로면최고온도다저우력청로면,최저온도다고우력청로면。재차기출상응용축보회귀방법건립축시로면온도예보모형화최고도면온도예보모형,병응용모형모의적결과여실측로면온도작대비분석,결과표명축시도면온도예보모형적모의효과교호,최고도면온도예보모형오차교대,수요진일보수정화개진。
Basing on the road surface temperature information observed from artificial fixed-point,the road surface temperature variation under different sky conditions and over different materials was analyzed.The result shows that when it's clear or partly cloudy(rainy),the road surface temperature is slightly higher than air temperature during sunrise and sunset(all day),with the road surface temperature variation amplitude is maximum around noon and significantly higher than the air temperature(relatively flat and a good correlation with the temperature maintained).Due to different physical characteristics of cement and asphalt,the highest(lowest) road temperature of the cement concrete is lower(higher) than that of asphalt.Then stepwise regression method was used to establish the hourly pavement temperature prediction model and the highest pavement temperature prediction model.The comparative analysis of the model simulation results with the measured surface temperature shows that the hourly pavement temperature prediction model is better.The highest pavement temperature prediction model with significant error needs for further amendments and improvements.