CAJ | 학술논문

气候变化问题是近年来国际社会所关注的热点,对于近代全球是否在变暖？以及驱动变暖的因素到底是什么？是自然过程还是人为作用？科学家们一直对此有着不同的见解.政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）认为现在全球变暖是因为人类活动排放了大量CO2,其浓度增加而导致增温,但是很多科学家并不赞同.为了理清这一问题,本研究整合了近年来有关地质时期及现代大气CO2浓度与温度的关系数据,对其进行了梳理分析,结果显示不论是从地质年代的长尺度上来看,还是从近代的短尺度上来看,CO2浓度变化与全球气温变化之间都不存在一个足以令人信服的关系,因此,以此证明现在温度的增加是由于CO2浓度增加所引起的是不科学的.关于温度变化的驱动因子还存在很大的不确定性,也就不能明确地判断大气温度增加的主导因素是自然过程还是人为作用.
기후변화문제시근년래국제사회소관주적열점,대우근대전구시부재변난？이급구동변난적인소도저시십요？시자연과정환시인위작용？과학가문일직대차유착불동적견해.정부간기후변화전문위원회（IPCC）인위현재전구변난시인위인류활동배방료대량CO2,기농도증가이도치증온,단시흔다과학가병불찬동.위료리청저일문제,본연구정합료근년래유관지질시기급현대대기CO2농도여온도적관계수거,대기진행료소리분석,결과현시불론시종지질년대적장척도상래간,환시종근대적단척도상래간,CO2농도변화여전구기온변화지간도불존재일개족이령인신복적관계,인차,이차증명현재온도적증가시유우CO2농도증가소인기적시불과학적.관우온도변화적구동인자환존재흔대적불학정성,야취불능명학지판단대기온도증가적주도인소시자연과정환시인위작용.
Global warming has become a great focus for international community in recent years.However,did it really happen？ What factors have driven and are still driving it？ How to identify the roles of natural and man-made process？ Scientists have different opinions on these questions.IPCC asserted that modern global warming was caused by the increase of CO2 concentration mainly due to human activities.However,many scientists did not agree with this statement.In order to sort out this problem,we investigated the published data concerning the relations of atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature during various geological periods.The results show,both from the geological time scale and from the modern short time scale,no convincing relationship between CO2 concentration and temperature can prove that the increasing temperature nowadays is caused by the increasing CO2 concentration.This indicates the great uncertainty about driving factors on temperature increasing,nor can we determine the main reason of global warming by now.