CAJ | 학술논문

利用NCEP（National Centers for Environmental Prediction）提供的1°×1°的FNL（final）资料和中尺度WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式,研究了热带气旋（tropical cyclone,简记TC）动力季节预报的可能性,通过在27km的粗网格中运用张弛逼近（Nudging）技术,对2006年7-9月西北太平洋TC活动进行了92d的连续数值积分。与观测结果比较表明,WRF模式不仅较好地模拟了MJO（Madden-Julian oscillation）和准双周振荡的活动情况,而且模拟的TC频数、移动路径和强度都与实际观测结果比较接近。在嵌套的9km网格中,不仅模拟出眼墙、暖心等TC结构的主要特征和TC的西行盛行路径及登陆活动情况,而且所模拟的生成过程包括早期研究中提出的TC生成过程中的两次快速发展的过程。模拟的TC初始涡旋主要出现在季风槽中,伴随准双周振荡活动,它的第一次发展在初始涡旋中心形成强烈的对流区;经过一段时间的减弱后,在有利的大尺度形势下,涡旋中心湿水汽层迅速增厚,导致气旋的第二次强烈发展。
이용NCEP（National Centers for Environmental Prediction）제공적1°×1°적FNL（final）자료화중척도WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）모식,연구료열대기선（tropical cyclone,간기TC）동력계절예보적가능성,통과재27km적조망격중운용장이핍근（Nudging）기술,대2006년7-9월서북태평양TC활동진행료92d적련속수치적분。여관측결과비교표명,WRF모식불부교호지모의료MJO（Madden-Julian oscillation）화준쌍주진탕적활동정황,이차모의적TC빈수、이동로경화강도도여실제관측결과비교접근。재감투적9km망격중,불부모의출안장、난심등TC결구적주요특정화TC적서행성행로경급등륙활동정황,이차소모의적생성과정포괄조기연구중제출적TC생성과정중적량차쾌속발전적과정。모의적TC초시와선주요출현재계풍조중,반수준쌍주진탕활동,타적제일차발전재초시와선중심형성강렬적대류구;경과일단시간적감약후,재유리적대척도형세하,와선중심습수기층신속증후,도치기선적제이차강렬발전。
To detect the dynamic prediction feasibility of tropical cyclone seasonal activities,a 92-d numerical integration of the WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting） mesoscale model is conducted with the National Centers of Environmental Prediction（NCEP） 1°×1° final（FNL） data as the initial and boundary conditions to simulate the tropical cyclone activity in the northern West Pacific basin during July-September 2006.In order to obtain relatively realistic large-scale circulation in the regional model,the nudging technique is used in the coarse domain with 27 km spacing.Compared with the NCEP reanalysis,the model can reasonably reproduce the Madden-Julian oscillation（MJO） and quasi-biweekly oscillation（QBWO）.The simulated tropical cyclone activity（including frequency,track and intensity） is fairly comparable to the observation.In the 9 km domain,together with the well-simulated tropical cyclone structure such as the eyewall and warm-core,the simulation well captures the westward prevailing tracks and landfall processes.Further analysis suggests that the model can also simulate the tropical cyclogenesis including a two-step development of the convection,as suggested in previous studies.The initial vortex appears around the monsoon trough,accompanied with cyclonic phase of the QBWO.In the first development process,the initial vortex evolves into an extremely convective core.After a short time decline,associated with the favorable large-scale circulation,the extremely convective area is compassed by the high humidity air,which causes the second development process.