CAJ | 학술논문

北极作为地球的冷源之一,对于地球气候系统起着重要的调节作用.本研究通过分析和总结北极地区器测数据和模拟集成结果,以及最近2 000 a来的温度记录,得出如下结果：1）格陵兰冰盖表层大气温度记录显示,20世纪存在1923—1965年和1994年—至今2个相对温暖时段,且前者更为温暖,温度变化幅度远大于北半球的平均温度.2）北极地区20世纪温度上升是客观存在的,其夏季温度和年平均温度呈现一致变化,未发现明显的温度异常信号.3）定量重建的古气候记录显示了北极地区20世纪升温的特征,但不同记录揭示的升温幅度存在差异.与器测结果不同,多条重建记录未能揭示自1994年至今的升温阶段,反映了古气候载体对气候响应的复杂性,揭示出北极地区未来气候变化趋势存在不确定性.在全球变化备受关注的背景下,北极地区对气候变化研究的重要性日益显现,在做出明确结论之前,需要进一步加大研究力度.
북겁작위지구적랭원지일,대우지구기후계통기착중요적조절작용.본연구통과분석화총결북겁지구기측수거화모의집성결과,이급최근2 000 a래적온도기록,득출여하결과：1）격릉란빙개표층대기온도기록현시,20세기존재1923—1965년화1994년—지금2개상대온난시단,차전자경위온난,온도변화폭도원대우북반구적평균온도.2）북겁지구20세기온도상승시객관존재적,기하계온도화년평균온도정현일치변화,미발현명현적온도이상신호.3）정량중건적고기후기록현시료북겁지구20세기승온적특정,단불동기록게시적승온폭도존재차이.여기측결과불동,다조중건기록미능게시자1994년지금적승온계단,반영료고기후재체대기후향응적복잡성,게시출북겁지구미래기후변화추세존재불학정성.재전구변화비수관주적배경하,북겁지구대기후변화연구적중요성일익현현,재주출명학결론지전,수요진일보가대연구력도.
As one cold source of the earth,the Arctic plays an important role in its climate system.The study analyzes and summarizes temperatures from meteorological station and modeling,and temperature records of the past two thousand years in the Arctic.The results show：1）The near-surface air temperature anomalies of Greenland Inland ice show a larger change amplitude than Northern Hemisphere,and two warm periods,including 1923—1965 and 1994—present in the 20th century,can be identified,among which the former is warmer;2）The temperature in the Arctic was going up in the 20th century,with its average temperature of summer and annual showing a consistent variability and no significant anomaly signals of the temperature could be found between them;3）The quantitative reconstructions of paleo-temperature in the Arctic showed a warming trend in the 20th century,but there was amplitude discrepancy in the variability of temperature.A number of records failed to reveal a warming phase from 1994 to the present,reflecting high complexity between the paleoclimate proxy and climate system.All these facts reveal the uncertainties in the trend of future climate change in the Arctic.In the context of global climate change,the importance of related research in the Arctic is increasing.However,much more work must be done for getting definite conclusions.