CAJ | 학술논문

极端气候事件是在一定时间尺度上发生的不同于气候系统平均状态的气候突变.早第三纪的最热事件（PETM）,第四纪中国黄土高原古土壤S4、S5记录的暖湿事件,砂黄土L9、L15记录的干冷事件等都是在轨道时间尺度上发生的极端气候事件.末次冰消期的YD冷事件、全新世9次冷事件是在千—百年尺度上发生的极端气候事件.这些极端气候事件出现于地球气候系统不同的冷暖背景下,它们的成因机制和表现形式有很多不确定性.20世纪以来发生的干旱、洪水、飓风、雪灾、沙尘暴等极端气候事件,无法用持续增加的温室气体的变化来解释.关于极端气候事件发生频率和强度随＂全球变暖＂而增加的结论也存在一定程度的不确定性.因此,简单地将现代极端气候事件统统归因于＂气候变暖＂既不科学也不合理.深入研究各个时间尺度上发生的极端气候事件的波动性、周期性和不确定性特征,有助于科学预测未来气候变化背景下极端气候事件的发展趋势.
겁단기후사건시재일정시간척도상발생적불동우기후계통평균상태적기후돌변.조제삼기적최열사건（PETM）,제사기중국황토고원고토양S4、S5기록적난습사건,사황토L9、L15기록적간랭사건등도시재궤도시간척도상발생적겁단기후사건.말차빙소기적YD랭사건、전신세9차랭사건시재천—백년척도상발생적겁단기후사건.저사겁단기후사건출현우지구기후계통불동적랭난배경하,타문적성인궤제화표현형식유흔다불학정성.20세기이래발생적간한、홍수、구풍、설재、사진폭등겁단기후사건,무법용지속증가적온실기체적변화래해석.관우겁단기후사건발생빈솔화강도수＂전구변난＂이증가적결론야존재일정정도적불학정성.인차,간단지장현대겁단기후사건통통귀인우＂기후변난＂기불과학야불합리.심입연구각개시간척도상발생적겁단기후사건적파동성、주기성화불학정성특정,유조우과학예측미래기후변화배경하겁단기후사건적발전추세.
Variations and trends in extreme climate events have recently received much attention since it is becoming more frequently and costly.Extreme climate events are happening on a certain time scale,being different from the abrupt climate change of climate system on the average state.The extreme climate events had happened at orbit scales and Millennial-Centennial scales,such as Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,the great warmth in Quaternary reflected by S4,S5 soils,and the severe dry-cold periods evidenced by the L9 and L15 at Chinese Loess Plateau,and the Younger Drays Event,the nine severe cold events respectively occurred in the last deglaciation and Holocene.These extreme climate events appeared in the earth′s climate system under the background of different changes in temperature,however,there are a lot of uncertainties in their formation mechanism and representation.Since the 20th century,many extreme climate events such as droughts,floods,hurricanes and dust storms have taken place,which could not be explained only by the increasing of greenhouse gas,and the conclusion that the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events would increase along with the global warming still remains uncertain.Therefore,it is neither scientific nor reasonable if we simply ascribe modern extreme climate events to climate warming.So,an intensive study for the volatility,periodicity and uncertainty of the extreme climate events happened at different time scales will help us to predict the development tendency of extreme climate events under the background of climate change in the future.