亚热带资源与环境学报
亞熱帶資源與環境學報
아열대자원여배경학보
JOURNAL OF SUBTROPICAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT
2012年
1期
1-11
,共11页
刘秀铭%李志忠%雷培文%赵国永%姜修洋%陈秀玲%陈家胜%朱芸%吕镔%雷国良%李平原%靳建辉%陈渠
劉秀銘%李誌忠%雷培文%趙國永%薑脩洋%陳秀玲%陳傢勝%硃蕓%呂鑌%雷國良%李平原%靳建輝%陳渠
류수명%리지충%뢰배문%조국영%강수양%진수령%진가성%주예%려빈%뢰국량%리평원%근건휘%진거
气候变暖%温度驱动CO2%变冷趋势
氣候變暖%溫度驅動CO2%變冷趨勢
기후변난%온도구동CO2%변랭추세
global warming%temperature drives CO2%cooling trend
近年来人们对＂气候变暖＂及其机制的争论达到了前所未有的程度,这可能是因为气候变化不再是单纯研究大气变化规律的科学,而变成一门与＂减排方案＂和＂征收碳税＂有关的政治与经济问题相联系,与国家经济利益有关的崭新课题.＂气候变暖＂既与利益有关,就会难免偏离公正,偏离纯理论科学.本研究对国内外＂气候变暖＂最新动态进行回顾分析,得出以下认识和结论.1）过去百年城市发展,极大地影响了器测温度数据,如果没有对＂热岛效应＂进行矫正,无疑高估了过去百年全球升温的幅度;2）过去百年全球有所变暖是事实,但不同学者增温估算不一致.不仅升温幅度不确定,而且人类和自然因素对升温贡献各占多少也不确定;如果考虑到城市发展对增温估算的影响,过去百年增温应当比0.4℃更低,远没有达到历史上次级波动的变化范围.3）尽管过去百年地球有所变暖,但在万年轨道尺度上,现在地球处于变冷的大趋势过程中.对现在气候变暖更合理解释,是属于变冷大趋势中的次级变暖波动;4）不论过去还是现在,大气CO2浓度变化总是落后于温度变化,即总是温度驱动着CO2变化,而不是CO2浓度驱动地球增温.
近年來人們對＂氣候變暖＂及其機製的爭論達到瞭前所未有的程度,這可能是因為氣候變化不再是單純研究大氣變化規律的科學,而變成一門與＂減排方案＂和＂徵收碳稅＂有關的政治與經濟問題相聯繫,與國傢經濟利益有關的嶄新課題.＂氣候變暖＂既與利益有關,就會難免偏離公正,偏離純理論科學.本研究對國內外＂氣候變暖＂最新動態進行迴顧分析,得齣以下認識和結論.1）過去百年城市髮展,極大地影響瞭器測溫度數據,如果沒有對＂熱島效應＂進行矯正,無疑高估瞭過去百年全毬升溫的幅度;2）過去百年全毬有所變暖是事實,但不同學者增溫估算不一緻.不僅升溫幅度不確定,而且人類和自然因素對升溫貢獻各佔多少也不確定;如果攷慮到城市髮展對增溫估算的影響,過去百年增溫應噹比0.4℃更低,遠沒有達到歷史上次級波動的變化範圍.3）儘管過去百年地毬有所變暖,但在萬年軌道呎度上,現在地毬處于變冷的大趨勢過程中.對現在氣候變暖更閤理解釋,是屬于變冷大趨勢中的次級變暖波動;4）不論過去還是現在,大氣CO2濃度變化總是落後于溫度變化,即總是溫度驅動著CO2變化,而不是CO2濃度驅動地毬增溫.
근년래인문대＂기후변난＂급기궤제적쟁론체도료전소미유적정도,저가능시인위기후변화불재시단순연구대기변화규률적과학,이변성일문여＂감배방안＂화＂정수탄세＂유관적정치여경제문제상련계,여국가경제이익유관적참신과제.＂기후변난＂기여이익유관,취회난면편리공정,편리순이론과학.본연구대국내외＂기후변난＂최신동태진행회고분석,득출이하인식화결론.1）과거백년성시발전,겁대지영향료기측온도수거,여과몰유대＂열도효응＂진행교정,무의고고료과거백년전구승온적폭도;2）과거백년전구유소변난시사실,단불동학자증온고산불일치.불부승온폭도불학정,이차인류화자연인소대승온공헌각점다소야불학정;여과고필도성시발전대증온고산적영향,과거백년증온응당비0.4℃경저,원몰유체도역사상차급파동적변화범위.3）진관과거백년지구유소변난,단재만년궤도척도상,현재지구처우변랭적대추세과정중.대현재기후변난경합리해석,시속우변랭대추세중적차급변난파동;4）불론과거환시현재,대기CO2농도변화총시락후우온도변화,즉총시온도구동착CO2변화,이불시CO2농도구동지구증온.
In recent years,controversy about global warming and its mechanism have reached an unprecedented level.Partly,this is due to the fact that climatic change is moving from a pure topic of atmospheric science and evolving into an issue associated with carbon reduction,carbon tax and other national interests.Since having been highly economy-linked,the issue may inevitably deviate from pure science discussion and leave room for unfairness to step in.Based on in-depth review and analysis,we come to conclusions as follows： 1）Because rapid urban development in last century had affected temperature measurements,the heating island effect should be considered to avoid the overestimation of global warming;2）The contributing factors,human or natural ones,of the warming during last century remain uncertain,so the warming rate may be 0.4 ℃ or even lower,if the heating island effect is corrected,;3）At 10 000-year time scale,global climate is in its cooling trend,in contrast to the warming at 100-year time scale,and the latter can be explained more reasonably as one of secondary fluctuations of the former;4）Either in the past or at present,the change of atmospheric CO2 concentration has always lagged behind that of temperature.In other words,temperature drives CO2 but not vice versa.
