CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料等,采用天气动力学诊断方法,对2011年3月13～15日宁夏寒潮天气过程的影响系统配置、冷空气移动路径及高低空环流形势演变等进行诊断分析,并结合宁夏寒潮和大风沙尘预报指标,分析了强降温和大风沙尘的主要成因。结果表明：过程前期宁夏各地升温强烈,有强冷空气在西西伯利亚堆积并向南爆发造成此次寒潮天气;过程出现在乌拉尔山高压脊强烈发展东移过程中,影响系统为新疆快速东移短波槽与强锋区,促使寒潮爆发的流场为＂低槽东移型＂,地面冷高压进入关键区,中心强度达1 062.7 hPa,以分裂南下方式影响;气温剧降的主要原因是850 hPa有强盛的冷平流自北向南控制宁夏;大风沙尘产生在强风区、辐合区、上升运动区及涡度梯度带上,并有＂低层辐合中层辐散高层辐合＂的垂直结构;由于系统浅薄、强度不强、宁夏及上游为平直西风气流、没有高空急流区配合是未出现沙尘暴的主要原因。在此基础上,提出宁夏春季寒潮预报概念模型和预报着眼点。
이용상규기상관측자료、NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°재분석자료등,채용천기동역학진단방법,대2011년3월13～15일저하한조천기과정적영향계통배치、랭공기이동로경급고저공배류형세연변등진행진단분석,병결합저하한조화대풍사진예보지표,분석료강강온화대풍사진적주요성인。결과표명：과정전기저하각지승온강렬,유강랭공기재서서백리아퇴적병향남폭발조성차차한조천기;과정출현재오랍이산고압척강렬발전동이과정중,영향계통위신강쾌속동이단파조여강봉구,촉사한조폭발적류장위＂저조동이형＂,지면랭고압진입관건구,중심강도체1 062.7 hPa,이분렬남하방식영향;기온극강적주요원인시850 hPa유강성적랭평류자북향남공제저하;대풍사진산생재강풍구、복합구、상승운동구급와도제도대상,병유＂저층복합중층복산고층복합＂적수직결구;유우계통천박、강도불강、저하급상유위평직서풍기류、몰유고공급류구배합시미출현사진폭적주요원인。재차기출상,제출저하춘계한조예보개념모형화예보착안점。
Based on conventional meteorological observation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the diagnostic analysis was made about a cold wave weather event occurred from March 13 to 15 in 2011 in Ningxia,and the main reason of strong temperature drop,gale and sanddust weather were analyzed by combining with the cold wave prediction indexes of Ningxia.The results show that in early stage of the weather event,there was an obvious rising of temperature in Ningxia,and strong cold air accumulated in west Siberi and bursting toward south caused this cold wave event.During this cold wave process,the circulation over middle-high latitude Asia presented two troughs and one bridge,the dynamic mechanisms were upper rotating short-wave trough and strong front zone,the stream fields leading to outbreak of the cold wave were low trough moving east,the value of ground cold high pressure center reached to 1 062.7 hPa and it split and influenced Ningxia;After the burst of cold air,strong cold advection appeared over Ningxia,strong wind and dust occurred over the strong wind zone,convergence zone,vertical motion zone and vorticity gradient zone,and there was the vertical structure of convergence in lower level,divergence in middle level and convergence in high level,but there was no sandstorm occurred in Ningxia.Finally,we gave out the prediction conceptual model and forecast points of spring cold wave weather event in Ningxia.