CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规天气图和数值预报资料,对2011年5月8发生在广西东北部的一次大范围较强降水过程的成因和预报失误的原因进行了分析,结果表明：高空波动和低空突然增强的南亚季风急流的共同作用,700～500hPa风切变引起的辐合上升以及干线入侵是造成这次强降水过程的主要原因。这次暴雨过程漏报的主要原因是：天气形势配置不是很有利,对中层干侵入的分析不够深入。
이용상규천기도화수치예보자료,대2011년5월8발생재엄서동북부적일차대범위교강강수과정적성인화예보실오적원인진행료분석,결과표명：고공파동화저공돌연증강적남아계풍급류적공동작용,700～500hPa풍절변인기적복합상승이급간선입침시조성저차강강수과정적주요원인。저차폭우과정루보적주요원인시：천기형세배치불시흔유리,대중층간침입적분석불구심입。
Basing on the conventional weather data and numerical prediction data,the wide range strong precipitation process in the northeast of Guangxi on May 8,2011 were analyzed.The results show that the cause of the precipitation was the combined effect of high altitude fluctuations and South Asian monsoon jet in low-altitude suddenly enhancing,accompanied with the convergence caused by 700-500hPa wind shear and dry air intrusion.The main reason for omission forecasting of the rainstorm is without unfavorable weather situation configuration and deep analysis on the middle-level dry air intrusion.