CAJ | 학술논문

针对已有城市交通出行链行为分析模型的不足，分析了城市交通出行链的基本概念与简单出行链的可能路径，并基于起讫点限制条件与多模式交通网络下的交通距离限制条件，推导构建了基于最大熵模型的多模式交通网络下城市交通出行链行为模型，给出了参数估计与先验概率选择方法；将模型应用到成都市中心城区居民出行样本数据中，通过出行链距离、出行链中交通小区间的出行量、出行链到达小区的数量、出行链小区的到达发生量、各类出行链的出行量等5个指标对模型进行了检验。结果表明：模型值与实际值拟合度较好，说明模型是有效的，可做为全面分析城市交通出行的一个有效模型工具。
침대이유성시교통출행련행위분석모형적불족，분석료성시교통출행련적기본개념여간단출행련적가능로경，병기우기흘점한제조건여다모식교통망락하적교통거리한제조건，추도구건료기우최대적모형적다모식교통망락하성시교통출행련행위모형，급출료삼수고계여선험개솔선택방법；장모형응용도성도시중심성구거민출행양본수거중，통과출행련거리、출행련중교통소구간적출행량、출행련도체소구적수량、출행련소구적도체발생량、각류출행련적출행량등5개지표대모형진행료검험。결과표명：모형치여실제치의합도교호，설명모형시유효적，가주위전면분석성시교통출행적일개유효모형공구。
In order to overcome the deficiencies of the existing behavior models of trip chains for urban transporta-tion,the basic concept of the urban trip chain and the possible paths in a simple trip chain were analyzed,and a model based on the entropy-maximizing (EM)model was proposed to describe the trip chain behavior in a multi-mode transportation network,in which origin-destination constraints and travel distance constraints were introduced. Then,the corresponding parameter estimation procedure and prior probability setting method were given.Finally, the model was applied to the analysis of sample data of the resident trip survey in the inner city of Chengdu,with its effectiveness being verified by 5 benchmark indexes including the travel distance of trip chains,the trip flow be-tween zones of trip chains,the number of trip chains approaching different zones,the individuals of different trip chains and the individuals of different types of trip chains.The results show that the proposed model accords well with real values,so that it can be used as an effective modeling tool for analyzing urban transportation travel.