中国卫生经济
中國衛生經濟
중국위생경제
CHINESE HEALTH ECONOMICS
2014年
3期
50-51
,共2页
状态空间模型%卫生总费用%国内生产总值%预测
狀態空間模型%衛生總費用%國內生產總值%預測
상태공간모형%위생총비용%국내생산총치%예측
state space model%total health expenditure%gross domestic product%prediction
目的：基于卫生总费用与经济增长的动态关系，预测卫生总费用未来增长趋势。方法：利用状态空间模型刻画1978-2011年我国卫生总费用与经济增长之间的动态关系，然后对模型拟合效果进行评价。之后，利用状态空间模型对2012～2016年我国卫生总费用进行预测。结果：至2016年，我国卫生总费用将达5.681万亿元，占GDP的比重将达5.692%。结论：必须处理好卫生总费用增长与经济发展的关系。
目的：基于衛生總費用與經濟增長的動態關繫，預測衛生總費用未來增長趨勢。方法：利用狀態空間模型刻畫1978-2011年我國衛生總費用與經濟增長之間的動態關繫，然後對模型擬閤效果進行評價。之後，利用狀態空間模型對2012～2016年我國衛生總費用進行預測。結果：至2016年，我國衛生總費用將達5.681萬億元，佔GDP的比重將達5.692%。結論：必鬚處理好衛生總費用增長與經濟髮展的關繫。
목적：기우위생총비용여경제증장적동태관계，예측위생총비용미래증장추세。방법：이용상태공간모형각화1978-2011년아국위생총비용여경제증장지간적동태관계，연후대모형의합효과진행평개。지후，이용상태공간모형대2012～2016년아국위생총비용진행예측。결과：지2016년，아국위생총비용장체5.681만억원，점GDP적비중장체5.692%。결론：필수처리호위생총비용증장여경제발전적관계。
Objective: To predict the growth trend of total health expenditure in China based on the dynamic relationship between total health expenditure and economic growth. Methods: First, analyze the relationship between total health expenditure and economic growth from 1978 to 2011 with the state space model, evaluate the accuracy of the model and predict total health expenditure range from 2012 to 2016 with the status space mode. Results: Up to 2016, the total health expenditure would reach to 5.681 trillion yuan, and the ratio of the expenditure to gross domestic product(GDP) would increase to 5.692%. Conclusion: It is needed to balance the relationship between total health expenditure and economic growth.
