CAJ | 학술논문

利用SPSS 19.0计算京津冀地区城市北京、天津、石家庄、保定和唐山城市间API日均值(2011年2月11日-2012年12月30日)的Pearson相关系数，据各城市间的Pearson相关系数与各城市间的直线距离，对城市间API值与城市间距离的相关性进行了研究；此外，对2003-2012年间京津冀地区城市北京、天津、石家庄和西北地区兰州的空气质量级别和首要污染物的出现频率进行了统计分析，利用该频率比较研究了京津冀城市北京、天津、石家庄和西北兰州的空气质量状况；最后对北京、天津、石家庄和兰州市2003-2012年间的API月均值建立适合的SARIMA模型，利用模型预测4个城市2013-2014年的API月均值，并对比2013-2014年京津冀地区的北京、天津、石家庄与西北地区兰州空气质量的特点.结果表明：城市间API的相关系数与城市间距离呈正相关，京津冀区域内城市间的空气质量的治理应当采取城市间的联合防控进行治理；此外，兰州的空气质量在2003-2012年间的优良天数要低于北京、天津和石家庄，并且在该时段内4个城市的空气质量均趋于好转. SARIMA模型对北京、天津、石家庄和兰州2013-2014年间的API月均值的预测表明在此时间内兰州夏秋季节的空气质量好于北京、天津和石家庄，但在冬春季节差于这3个城市；此外北京、兰州的空气质量在继续改善，而天津和石家庄有空气质量恶化的趋势.
이용SPSS 19.0계산경진기지구성시북경、천진、석가장、보정화당산성시간API일균치(2011년2월11일-2012년12월30일)적Pearson상관계수，거각성시간적Pearson상관계수여각성시간적직선거리，대성시간API치여성시간거리적상관성진행료연구；차외，대2003-2012년간경진기지구성시북경、천진、석가장화서북지구란주적공기질량급별화수요오염물적출현빈솔진행료통계분석，이용해빈솔비교연구료경진기성시북경、천진、석가장화서북란주적공기질량상황；최후대북경、천진、석가장화란주시2003-2012년간적API월균치건립괄합적SARIMA모형，이용모형예측4개성시2013-2014년적API월균치，병대비2013-2014년경진기지구적북경、천진、석가장여서북지구란주공기질량적특점.결과표명：성시간API적상관계수여성시간거리정정상관，경진기구역내성시간적공기질량적치리응당채취성시간적연합방공진행치리；차외，란주적공기질량재2003-2012년간적우량천수요저우북경、천진화석가장，병차재해시단내4개성시적공기질량균추우호전. SARIMA모형대북경、천진、석가장화란주2013-2014년간적API월균치적예측표명재차시간내란주하추계절적공기질량호우북경、천진화석가장，단재동춘계절차우저3개성시；차외북경、란주적공기질량재계속개선，이천진화석가장유공기질량악화적추세.
Using Spss 19.0, this study calculated the Pearson correlation coeffcient of daily air pollution index (API) measured in Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, and Baoding from February 11, 2011 to December 31, 2012. The paired Pearson correlations among the API in the target cities revealed a relationship between air pollution and the spatial distance between these cities. Statistic frequency and percentage of the occurrence of the degree of air pollution subject to primary pollutants in Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Lanzhou in 2003-2012 were estimated and used to assess the air quality of these 4 cities. A SARIMA time series model was established to forecast the API over 2013-2014 for Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and Lanzhou based on historical mean monthly API data in 2003-2012. The results were further employed to compare and elucidate future air quality in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei Province and Lanzhou. It was found that the API of these cities correlated positively with the distance between these cities. Thus, to improve the air quality of a single city, integrated air pollution control strategy and measures should be taken simultaneously in these cities. Overall Lanzhou exhibited worst air quality, followed by Beijing, Shijiazhuang, and Tianjin. During the period of 2003-2012, however, the air quality of the four cities was being improved, with a declining trend of API. The predicted monthly average API for Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and Lanzhou in 2013 through 2014 shows that the summer and fall air quality in Lanzhou tends to be better than Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang in summer and fall, but will be vice versa in winter and spring. Among these four cities, the air quality of Lanzhou and Beijing would be improved continuously for the next two years whereas Tianjin and Shijiazhuang have a tendency of deterioration.