CAJ | 학술논문

利用2011年7月17日发生在豫西地区灵宝市寺河乡的一次典型防雹作业个例,从冰雹云的正确判别、作业方案的科学制定以及作业效果的尝试性评估等方面进行详细分析,设计了一种利用多普勒雷达产品确定作业部位、催化剂量和发射时机的防雹作业方案,为豫西地区科学开展人工防雹作业及其效果评估提供了一种新的思路：1）冰雹云的正确识别是人工防雹成功的关键,短期天气背景、气象要素场特征、探空资料以及雷达指标的分析可以及时判别出冰雹云。2）作业器具的选择、作业时机的把握、作业部位的判断、催化剂量的确定等都是决定人工防雹作业是否科学有效的重要因素,作业前必须认真科学地制定出防雹作业方案,减小人为的不确定性。3）在开展作业效果评估时,选取的对比云必须是与目标云具有相似的天气背景、云体特征和产生源地;另外,灾情实况也是效果评估的一个重要方面。
이용2011년7월17일발생재예서지구령보시사하향적일차전형방박작업개례,종빙박운적정학판별、작업방안적과학제정이급작업효과적상시성평고등방면진행상세분석,설계료일충이용다보륵뢰체산품학정작업부위、최화제량화발사시궤적방박작업방안,위예서지구과학개전인공방박작업급기효과평고제공료일충신적사로：1）빙박운적정학식별시인공방박성공적관건,단기천기배경、기상요소장특정、탐공자료이급뢰체지표적분석가이급시판별출빙박운。2）작업기구적선택、작업시궤적파악、작업부위적판단、최화제량적학정등도시결정인공방박작업시부과학유효적중요인소,작업전필수인진과학지제정출방박작업방안,감소인위적불학정성。3）재개전작업효과평고시,선취적대비운필수시여목표운구유상사적천기배경、운체특정화산생원지;령외,재정실황야시효과평고적일개중요방면。
Based on the typical case of hail suppression operation which occurred in Sihe township of Western Henan on July 17, 2011, a detailed analysis is conducted on correct discrimination of hail cloud, scientific development of scheme design as well as the tentative evaluation of the operating effect etc. A kind of operation scheme which uses Doppler radar products to determine the operational site, a- mount of catalyst and emission timing of hail suppression is designed, and a new thought is provided for the scientific development of artificial hail suppression operation and its effect evaluation in Western Henan. The results are as follows. 1） Hail cloud recognition is the key to the success of artificial hail suppression; short-term weather background, characteristics of meteorological element field, radiosonde data and radar indicator analysis can identify hail cloud in time. 2） The choice of operation apparatus, grasping operation timing, operation site judgment, catalyst quantity determination are all the effective factors which decide whether the artificial hail suppression operation succeeds or not. Before the operation a scientifically operation scheme must he carefully conducted, to reduce the artificial uncertainty. 3 ） When operation effect is evaluated, selected contrast cloud must have similar weather background, cloud features and generating source cloud with the target cloud. In addition, disaster situation is an important aspect of evaluation.