CAJ | 학술논문

依据高关水库1972-2010年灌溉用水量资料，应用均值标准差法建立4级分级标准。针对用水量为相依随机变量的特点，以各阶自相关系数为权重，运用马尔可夫链模型预测未来一年的灌溉用水量状态，结果表明，该方法直观、预测准确、计算简便，为灌区灌溉用水量的中长期预测提供了新的分析途径。
의거고관수고1972-2010년관개용수량자료，응용균치표준차법건립4급분급표준。침대용수량위상의수궤변량적특점，이각계자상관계수위권중，운용마이가부련모형예측미래일년적관개용수량상태，결과표명，해방법직관、예측준학、계산간편，위관구관개용수량적중장기예측제공료신적분석도경。
Based on irrigation water use data of Gaoguan Reservoir from 1972 to 2010, the 4-grad- ing standards are established by applying mean standard deviation method. According to the char- acteristics of dependent random variables of water use and taking autocorrelation coefficients as weights, Markov Chain model is used to predict the state of irrigation water use in the coming year. The result shows that the method is visual, proiections are accurate and calculation is sim- ple, providing a new analytical approach for long-term forcasting of irrigation water use.