大学数学
大學數學
대학수학
COLLEGE MATHEMATICS
2012年
4期
81-86
,共6页
刘静%袁修久%井爱雯%冯军庆
劉靜%袁脩久%井愛雯%馮軍慶
류정%원수구%정애문%풍군경
人口%预测模型%总和生育率%老龄化%城镇化%性别比
人口%預測模型%總和生育率%老齡化%城鎮化%性彆比
인구%예측모형%총화생육솔%노령화%성진화%성별비
population%model of predicting%summarized for the birth rate%the degree of aging%urbanization%the sex ratio
通过对1994―2005年男、女出生人口性别比的变化和2001―2005年城镇化趋势的分析,建立了我国人口发展总量的中长期预测模型,并针对在总和生育率四种不同情况下2006-2100年的人口发展状况进行了长期预测和详细分析.在目前人口结构状况下,将总和生育率控制在更替水平左右,既可保证总人口不超过15亿,又能降低人口老龄化程度,可为人口控制、决策提供较为科学的依据.
通過對1994―2005年男、女齣生人口性彆比的變化和2001―2005年城鎮化趨勢的分析,建立瞭我國人口髮展總量的中長期預測模型,併針對在總和生育率四種不同情況下2006-2100年的人口髮展狀況進行瞭長期預測和詳細分析.在目前人口結構狀況下,將總和生育率控製在更替水平左右,既可保證總人口不超過15億,又能降低人口老齡化程度,可為人口控製、決策提供較為科學的依據.
통과대1994―2005년남、녀출생인구성별비적변화화2001―2005년성진화추세적분석,건립료아국인구발전총량적중장기예측모형,병침대재총화생육솔사충불동정황하2006-2100년적인구발전상황진행료장기예측화상세분석.재목전인구결구상황하,장총화생육솔공제재경체수평좌우,기가보증총인구불초과15억,우능강저인구노령화정도,가위인구공제、결책제공교위과학적의거.
Based on the change of the sex ratio of China over the period from 1994 to 2005 as well as the analyses of the urbanization of China over the period from 2001 to 2005 in this paper, the model is established of predicting both middle-and long-term growth of China population. And then in view of four different circumstances summarized for the birth rate, a long-term prediction and a detailed analysis of China population growth are conducted for the period from the year of 2006 to that of 2100. The birth rate should be controlled within the balance between birth and death, in which light, two conclusions are reached as follows: the total population of China will not exceed 1.5 billion, and meanwhile, the degree of aging will be reduced. A new method of providing scientific grounds for policy making on the control of population is put out.