CAJ | 학술논문

[目的]以安徽省为例，对棉花冰雹灾害进行风险评价。[方法]以我国雹灾多发区安徽省为例，基于安徽省棉花雹灾风险评价数据库，采用统计推断法和综合指标度量法，提取雹灾致灾强度指数（日）和棉花损失率（L）；使用Matlab和SPSS软件，拟合棉花苗期、蕾期、铃期和吐絮期4条雹灾脆弱性曲线；基于构建的棉花雹灾年度灾害损失率计算模型Sa=n∑i=1Si-a∏i=1Si=1-（1-Si），开展安徽省棉花雹灾风险评价，并编绘风险评价图谱。[结果]安徽省棉花雹灾高风险区集中在东北部地区和皖西山地丘陵区，低风险区分布在长江中下游地区和皖南山区，与棉花历史雹灾空间分布吻合较好。[结论]该研究探讨了基于不完备信息数据的雹灾风险评价方法，可为其他地区雹灾风险评价提供方法和技术参考。
[목적]이안휘성위례，대면화빙박재해진행풍험평개。[방법]이아국박재다발구안휘성위례，기우안휘성면화박재풍험평개수거고，채용통계추단법화종합지표도량법，제취박재치재강도지수（일）화면화손실솔（L）；사용Matlab화SPSS연건，의합면화묘기、뢰기、령기화토서기4조박재취약성곡선；기우구건적면화박재년도재해손실솔계산모형Sa=n∑i=1Si-a∏i=1Si=1-（1-Si），개전안휘성면화박재풍험평개，병편회풍험평개도보。[결과]안휘성면화박재고풍험구집중재동북부지구화환서산지구릉구，저풍험구분포재장강중하유지구화환남산구，여면화역사박재공간분포문합교호。[결론]해연구탐토료기우불완비신식수거적박재풍험평개방법，가위기타지구박재풍험평개제공방법화기술삼고。
[Objective] The aim was to reveal the pattern of hail disaster risk for cotton in Anhui Province. [Method] Based on database of risk evaluation on hail disaster for cotton in Anhui Province, statistical inference and comprehensive indices measurement were made use of for extraction of disastrous index of hail （H） and loss rate of cotton （L）. Hail vulnerability curves in four stages （seedling, bud, boll and boll opening stages） of cotton were fitted by Matlab and SPSS software. Risk evaluation on hail disaster of cotton in Anhui Province was conducted and the related map was drawn on basis of yearly model of loss rate （by hail disaster）, as follows： Sa=n∑i=1Si-a∏i=1Si=1-（1-Si） [Result] In Anhui Province, high risk area by hail concentrates in northeast regions and mountainous regions in west of Anhui, and lower risk area is distributed in middle and down streams of Yangtze River and mountainous area in south of Anhui. [Conclusion] The research explored evaluation methods on hail risks based on the limited information, and could provide references for risk evaluation on hail disaster in other regions.