CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过建立通货膨胀、产出缺口、联邦基金利率和美国货币供应量增速的状态空间模型并运用卡尔曼滤波进行估计和分析，分别得出美国常规与量化宽松两种货币政策对我国通货膨胀影响力的不同动态特性。研究结果表明：通货膨胀惯性和通胀预期是影响我国通货膨胀的主要因素，其作用效果基本稳定；美国货币供应量M2增速对我国通货膨胀的影响次之，并且在美国实施量化宽松货币政策时出现明显的跳跃式的增加；由于我国资本账户没有实现完全开放，以联邦基金利率为代表的常规货币政策对通货膨胀的影响比较小。
본문통과건립통화팽창、산출결구、련방기금리솔화미국화폐공응량증속적상태공간모형병운용잡이만려파진행고계화분석，분별득출미국상규여양화관송량충화폐정책대아국통화팽창영향력적불동동태특성。연구결과표명：통화팽창관성화통창예기시영향아국통화팽창적주요인소，기작용효과기본은정；미국화폐공응량M2증속대아국통화팽창적영향차지，병차재미국실시양화관송화폐정책시출현명현적도약식적증가；유우아국자본장호몰유실현완전개방，이련방기금리솔위대표적상규화폐정책대통화팽창적영향비교소。
In this paper, two state space model about inflation, output gap, federal funds rate and money supply growth of the U.S. are developed and estimated using Kalman Filtering to obtain the difference dynamic characteristics of the influence of conventional and quantitative easing monetary policy on China＇ s inflation respectively. The results shows that the inflation persistence and expectation are the main factors to affect inflation, and their effects are basically steady; the effect of M2 growth on the inflation of China is the second and it presents an obvious increase when the U.S. implements quantitative easing monetary policy; as China＇ s capital account is not fully open, as the representative of conventional monetary policy, the ef- fect of the federal funds rate on inflation is relatively small.