CAJ | 학술논문

文章基于改进的STIRPAT模型，以1995-2010年按碳排放特征分组的中国工业面板数据为样本，实证研究了我国工业碳排放与经济增长关系及其主要影响因素。研究结果表明：中国碳排放与经济增长关系具有U型曲线特征，拐点处的经济产出高排放强度行业低于低排放强度行业。资本存量对工业碳排放的正向影响作用大于劳动力总量，科研投入有利于高排放强度行业减排，化石能源结构调整不能促进工业减排。
문장기우개진적STIRPAT모형，이1995-2010년안탄배방특정분조적중국공업면판수거위양본，실증연구료아국공업탄배방여경제증장관계급기주요영향인소。연구결과표명：중국탄배방여경제증장관계구유U형곡선특정，괴점처적경제산출고배방강도행업저우저배방강도행업。자본존량대공업탄배방적정향영향작용대우노동력총량，과연투입유리우고배방강도행업감배，화석능원결구조정불능촉진공업감배。
A stochastic impacts by regression on population affluence and technology (STIRPAT) model is proposed to inves-tigate the economic development impacts on CO2 emission and its main factors on the basis of Chinese industrial panel data grouped by the characteristics of carbon emission from 1995 to 2010. It shows that the relation curve of China’s industrial car-bon emission and the economic output behaves U-shaped, and the turning point of high emission intensity industry has less economic output than that of low emission intensity industry. The capital stock has a greater positive effect on carbon emission than that of labor. The investment on scientific research is conducive to the carbon reduction of high emission intensity indus-try,and the adjustment of fossil energy consumption structure cannot promote the carbon emission reduction of industry.