CAJ | 학술논문

文章在统计分析2000-2011年上海市能源消耗数据的基础上，以Tapio脱钩弹性指标为手段，研究上海市2001-2011年能源消费结构、产业结构与经济增长的脱钩关系及程度，分析能源消费结构、产业结构与经济增长关联状况的时间演变趋势。结果表明：2001-2011年上海市经济增长与能源消费总量间总体上处于弱脱钩状态；能源消费结构中，煤炭、石油、电力在大多数年份都处于弱脱钩状态，天然气则属于扩张负脱钩状态；产业结构中，第一、三产业都未能较好实现脱钩，第二产业以弱脱钩状态为主。在未来经济发展中，经济发达城市的产业结构和能源消费结构的改善对节能减排至关重要。能源消费除了总量控制外，产业结构的有序演进和能源结构的高效低碳演进是节能减排最基本途径和有效方式。
문장재통계분석2000-2011년상해시능원소모수거적기출상，이Tapio탈구탄성지표위수단，연구상해시2001-2011년능원소비결구、산업결구여경제증장적탈구관계급정도，분석능원소비결구、산업결구여경제증장관련상황적시간연변추세。결과표명：2001-2011년상해시경제증장여능원소비총량간총체상처우약탈구상태；능원소비결구중，매탄、석유、전력재대다수년빈도처우약탈구상태，천연기칙속우확장부탈구상태；산업결구중，제일、삼산업도미능교호실현탈구，제이산업이약탈구상태위주。재미래경제발전중，경제발체성시적산업결구화능원소비결구적개선대절능감배지관중요。능원소비제료총량공제외，산업결구적유서연진화능원결구적고효저탄연진시절능감배최기본도경화유효방식。
The degree of coupling of energy consumption and industrial structure on economic growth has been investigated in shanghai during 2001 to 2011. The Tapio decoupling analysis model was constructed to research the coupling relationship and de-coupling status between the economic growth and energy consumption, energy consumption structure and industrial structure, analyze the temporal variation trends of the coupling development in both. The results indicate that the coupling relationship be-tween the economic growth and total energy consumption volume were general weak decoupling status for the period of 2001 to 2011 in Shanghai. In energy consumption structure,coal,oil and electrical power supply were weak decoupling status in many years;and then natural gas supply was expansive negative decoupling status. The primary and tertiary industry have failed to achieve a better decoupling,while the secondary industry was general weak decoupling status during the same period. It is vital for developed cities to save energy and reduce carbon dioxide emissions in industrial structure and energy consumption in future economic development. The smooth evolutions of industrial structure and high efficiency and low carbon are the basic and effec-tive way for saving energy and low carbon dioxide emission,except for the control to the total energy consumption volume.