CAJ | 학술논문

排放情景下未来气候变化和土地利用变化及其水文响应是流域管理十分关心的问题。本文通过耦合土地利用/覆被变化模型Dyna-CLUE和水文模型SWAT，选择政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布的两个温室气体排放情景（A1B和B1），对黑河流域中上游土地利用变化及水文响应进行情景分析。模型校准和验证结果表明，Dy-na-CLUE和SWAT的模拟精度均比较满意。土地利用变化情景分析表明，不同排放情景下未来黑河流域中上游土地利用变化幅度均不大，同一情景下土地利用变化在中上游表现出各自的特点。水文响应多情景分析表明，不考虑土地利用变化，相对于参考情景即以1990-2009年历史数据模拟结果，高排放A1B情景下黑河流域上游和中游2011-2030年年平均河川径流分别呈微弱减少和明显增加的趋势，而低排放B1情景下分别呈明显减少和微弱减少的趋势。同一情景下，水文响应具有明显的区域差异性。考虑土地利用变化，高排放A1B情景下黑河流域上游和中游2011-2030年年平均河川径流分别小于和大于不考虑土地利用变化的情况，低排放B1情景下均小于不考虑土地利用变化的情况。分析表明，排放情景下气候变化和土地利用变化导致流域水文水资源的变化，而土地利用变化可能加剧或削弱气候变化导致的水文响应。
배방정경하미래기후변화화토지이용변화급기수문향응시류역관리십분관심적문제。본문통과우합토지이용/복피변화모형Dyna-CLUE화수문모형SWAT，선택정부간기후변화전문위원회（IPCC）발포적량개온실기체배방정경（A1B화B1），대흑하류역중상유토지이용변화급수문향응진행정경분석。모형교준화험증결과표명，Dy-na-CLUE화SWAT적모의정도균비교만의。토지이용변화정경분석표명，불동배방정경하미래흑하류역중상유토지이용변화폭도균불대，동일정경하토지이용변화재중상유표현출각자적특점。수문향응다정경분석표명，불고필토지이용변화，상대우삼고정경즉이1990-2009년역사수거모의결과，고배방A1B정경하흑하류역상유화중유2011-2030년년평균하천경류분별정미약감소화명현증가적추세，이저배방B1정경하분별정명현감소화미약감소적추세。동일정경하，수문향응구유명현적구역차이성。고필토지이용변화，고배방A1B정경하흑하류역상유화중유2011-2030년년평균하천경류분별소우화대우불고필토지이용변화적정황，저배방B1정경하균소우불고필토지이용변화적정황。분석표명，배방정경하기후변화화토지이용변화도치류역수문수자원적변화，이토지이용변화가능가극혹삭약기후변화도치적수문향응。
Land use and climate change under emission scenarios and their hydrological responses are some most concerned issues in watershed management. By coupling a land use land change model, Dyna-CLUE, and a hydrological model, SWAT, this paper predicts land use changes and hydrological responses in the upper and middle reaches of Heihe River Basin (HRB) under two emission scenarios, A1B and B1, from the Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). After calibration, the models validate their applicability in the study ar-ea. Scenario analysis shows no obvious land use changes in the upper and middle reaches of HRB with both emission scenarios while with a same scenario, land use changes present regional characteristics. In terms of fu-ture hydrological responses, if we only consider the climate change, comparing to the reference scenario that is created with historical data of 1990~2009, mean annual streamflow in the period of 2011~2030 shows a slight de-crease in the upper reaches of HRB and an obvious increase in the middle reaches under the high emission sce-nario (A1B), and an obvious decrease and a slight decrease respectively under the low emission scenario (B1). Under a same scenario, hydrological responses present regional characteristics in the upper and middle reaches. As climate change also causes land use change which in turn impacts hydrological responses, we compare the joint impact case with the case of climate change only. Mean annual streamflow in the period of 2011~2030 be-comes less in the upper reache and greater in the middle reache under the high emission scenario (A1B), and less in both reaches under the low emission scenario (B1). The analysis indicates that climate and land use changes under emission scenarios in the study area will lead to hydrological and water resources changes and the land use change may intensify or weaken hydrological responses caused by climate change.