CAJ | 학술논문

台风灾害是引发电网事故的最为严重的自然因素之一。为了提升电网抵御台风的能力，提出一种电网台风灾害实时预警方法，可实现对电网台风灾害的定量化短时临近预警。首先将预警区域按经纬度划分为0.01°×0.01°的网格并整理内含线路的网格集合ω。然后根据气象局提供的台风相关信息，通过比较ω内网格中心点到台风中心的距离与台风十级风圈大小得到有效决策界。进而确定风险线路集并计算风险线路的停运概率，据此判断台风灾害预警等级。同时发布相应的预警信息，为电网运行人员制定有针对性的稳控预案和防风灾调度策略提供依据和参考。
태풍재해시인발전망사고적최위엄중적자연인소지일。위료제승전망저어태풍적능력，제출일충전망태풍재해실시예경방법，가실현대전망태풍재해적정양화단시림근예경。수선장예경구역안경위도화분위0.01°×0.01°적망격병정리내함선로적망격집합ω。연후근거기상국제공적태풍상관신식，통과비교ω내망격중심점도태풍중심적거리여태풍십급풍권대소득도유효결책계。진이학정풍험선로집병계산풍험선로적정운개솔，거차판단태풍재해예경등급。동시발포상응적예경신식，위전망운행인원제정유침대성적은공예안화방풍재조도책략제공의거화삼고。
Among the natural factors which can cause accidents to power grid, the typhoon disaster is one of the most serious. In order to enhance the ability of power grid to withstand typhoon disaster, a typhoon disaster early warning method for power grid is proposed, which can realize short-term early warning of typhoon disaster for power grid quantitatively. Firstly, the warning area is divided into 0.01°×0.01° grids by longitude and latitude and the set of grids ω which have transmission lines inside is sorted out. Then according to the typhoon information provided by the meteorological administration, the effective decision boundary is obtained through comparing the distance from the center of grid in setωto the center of typhoon with the wind radius of level ten. Thus the risk set of lines is determined using effective decision boundary, and the early warning level of typhoon disaster can be obtained by calculating the outage probability of risky lines. Meanwhile, the corresponding warning information should be released, providing basis and reference for the operating staff of power grid to work out the targeted control plan for grid stability and scheduling strategies of preventing typhoon disaster.