CAJ | 학술논문

比例故障率模型(Proportional hazard model, PHM)中的故障率函数包含基准故障率函数和连接函数，前者表征设备的一般老化，后者描述设备状态的影响，对不同影响因素(协变量)进行量化。基于 PHM提出了一种综合考虑老化和设备状态的油浸变压器故障率模型，基准故障率函数采用常用的温升老化模型，连接函数中的协变量选择了能够全面客观反映设备状况的油中溶解气体信息。推导了故障前时间的概率密度分布并给出了使用极大似然估计拟合参数的方法。算例证明了拟合方法的正确性，结果分析表明提出的模型具有正确合理表征故障率的能力，并且能有效表征变压器维护操作对故障率的影响。
비례고장솔모형(Proportional hazard model, PHM)중적고장솔함수포함기준고장솔함수화련접함수，전자표정설비적일반노화，후자묘술설비상태적영향，대불동영향인소(협변량)진행양화。기우 PHM제출료일충종합고필노화화설비상태적유침변압기고장솔모형，기준고장솔함수채용상용적온승노화모형，련접함수중적협변량선택료능구전면객관반영설비상황적유중용해기체신식。추도료고장전시간적개솔밀도분포병급출료사용겁대사연고계의합삼수적방법。산예증명료의합방법적정학성，결과분석표명제출적모형구유정학합리표정고장솔적능력，병차능유효표정변압기유호조작대고장솔적영향。
The Cox’s time-dependent proportional hazard model (PHM) is widely used. Its hazard function contains two parts:the baseline hazard function which represents the aging process, and the link function which represents the equipment status. Based on PHM this paper proposes a new failure rate model for oil-immersed transformer concerning both aging process and equipment inspection information. The baseline hazard function follows a temperature-based aging model. The quantity of the dissolved gas is used as the covariate of the link function, for its comprehensiveness. We determine the probability density function of the time to failure, and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the model’s parameters. The case study proves the efficiency of the proposed model, which is able to characterize the failure rate of oil-immersed transformer reasonably and comprehensively and can represent the maintenance effect properly.