计算机工程与应用
計算機工程與應用
계산궤공정여응용
COMPUTER ENGINEERING AND APPLICATIONS
2013年
24期
238-242
,共5页
列控系统%贝叶斯网络%危险源%风险评估
列控繫統%貝葉斯網絡%危險源%風險評估
렬공계통%패협사망락%위험원%풍험평고
train control system%Bayesian network%hazard%risk assessment
为科学评估列车运行控制系统内各危险导致的事故风险，用贝叶斯网络描述危险、风险和事故后果间的因果关系。通过识别系统中的潜在危险、危险导致事故的发生率和严重程度，结合贝叶斯网络处理不完备数据的优势，建立基于贝叶斯网络的风险评估模型，计算危险导致事故发生的可容忍危险率，判断系统能否满足安全要求并达到设定的安全目标。以美国的列车保护警报系统和I级铁路事故/事件数据库为例，利用该模型进行风险评估，结果表明4个初始危险导致的事故可容忍危险率小于规定值，验证了模型的有效性，为列控系统风险评估的具体实施方法提供了新思路。
為科學評估列車運行控製繫統內各危險導緻的事故風險，用貝葉斯網絡描述危險、風險和事故後果間的因果關繫。通過識彆繫統中的潛在危險、危險導緻事故的髮生率和嚴重程度，結閤貝葉斯網絡處理不完備數據的優勢，建立基于貝葉斯網絡的風險評估模型，計算危險導緻事故髮生的可容忍危險率，判斷繫統能否滿足安全要求併達到設定的安全目標。以美國的列車保護警報繫統和I級鐵路事故/事件數據庫為例，利用該模型進行風險評估，結果錶明4箇初始危險導緻的事故可容忍危險率小于規定值，驗證瞭模型的有效性，為列控繫統風險評估的具體實施方法提供瞭新思路。
위과학평고열차운행공제계통내각위험도치적사고풍험，용패협사망락묘술위험、풍험화사고후과간적인과관계。통과식별계통중적잠재위험、위험도치사고적발생솔화엄중정도，결합패협사망락처리불완비수거적우세，건립기우패협사망락적풍험평고모형，계산위험도치사고발생적가용인위험솔，판단계통능부만족안전요구병체도설정적안전목표。이미국적열차보호경보계통화I급철로사고/사건수거고위례，이용해모형진행풍험평고，결과표명4개초시위험도치적사고가용인위험솔소우규정치，험증료모형적유효성，위렬공계통풍험평고적구체실시방법제공료신사로。
In order to evaluate the risk of accidents caused by hazards in train control system more scientifically, Bayesian network technology is introduced to figure the causal relationship among hazards, risks and consequences in the accident. Potential hazards, probability of occurrence of accidents and potential severity are identified. By combining with the advantage of Bayesian network processing incomplete data, the risk assessment model based on Bayesian network is established to calculate the Tolerable Hazard Rates(THRs)of accidents. And they are compared with the required safety standards to determine whether the system meets the safety requirements or objectives. The model integrating the railroad grade 1 accident/incident database is used to assess U.S. train protection warning system. THRs of accidents caused by four initial hazards are less than specified value. The validity of this model provides a new thought of train for the concrete implementation method of risk assessment on train control system.
