计算机工程与应用
計算機工程與應用
계산궤공정여응용
COMPUTER ENGINEERING AND APPLICATIONS
2013年
24期
116-121
,共6页
智能知识地图%数据挖掘%金融危机预警%静态分析%时域分析
智能知識地圖%數據挖掘%金融危機預警%靜態分析%時域分析
지능지식지도%수거알굴%금융위궤예경%정태분석%시역분석
intelligent knowledge map%data mining%financial crisis warning%static analysis%time-domain analysis
针对传统模糊认知图和知识地图数据挖掘效率偏低且预测准确性不高的问题，提出了基于智能知识地图的数据挖掘方法。利用成对变量的离散、映射从原始数据构建散布图；定义四元组模糊关联规则，在此基础上构建智能知识地图；根据关联节点数目识别中枢节点和不活动节点。实验利用静态分析评估了系统结构的不确定性，通过时域分析揭示了知识地图主要属性的演变过程，对上证50指数公司的金融数据分析验证了所提方法的有效性，实验结果表明，所提方法在金融危机预警方面取得非常准确的预测效果，为决策者掌控公司运营状况提供了强有力的危机预警工具。
針對傳統模糊認知圖和知識地圖數據挖掘效率偏低且預測準確性不高的問題，提齣瞭基于智能知識地圖的數據挖掘方法。利用成對變量的離散、映射從原始數據構建散佈圖；定義四元組模糊關聯規則，在此基礎上構建智能知識地圖；根據關聯節點數目識彆中樞節點和不活動節點。實驗利用靜態分析評估瞭繫統結構的不確定性，通過時域分析揭示瞭知識地圖主要屬性的縯變過程，對上證50指數公司的金融數據分析驗證瞭所提方法的有效性，實驗結果錶明，所提方法在金融危機預警方麵取得非常準確的預測效果，為決策者掌控公司運營狀況提供瞭彊有力的危機預警工具。
침대전통모호인지도화지식지도수거알굴효솔편저차예측준학성불고적문제，제출료기우지능지식지도적수거알굴방법。이용성대변량적리산、영사종원시수거구건산포도；정의사원조모호관련규칙，재차기출상구건지능지식지도；근거관련절점수목식별중추절점화불활동절점。실험이용정태분석평고료계통결구적불학정성，통과시역분석게시료지식지도주요속성적연변과정，대상증50지수공사적금융수거분석험증료소제방법적유효성，실험결과표명，소제방법재금융위궤예경방면취득비상준학적예측효과，위결책자장공공사운영상황제공료강유력적위궤예경공구。
For the issue that the traditional fuzzy cognitive map and knowledge map have inefficient data mining and low pre-dictability, data mining based on intelligent Knowledge Map(KM)is proposed. Paired variables are used to construct scatter dia-gram by discrete and mapping from original data. Quad fuzzy association rules are defined based on which knowledge map is constructed. Numbers of linked nodes are used to recognize central node and inactive nodes. Uncertainty of the system structure is estimated by static analysis, and evaluation process of major KM attributes is uncovered by time-domain analysis. Then effi-ciency of proposed method has been verified by analysis on financial data of 50 index companies in Shanghai Stock. Experi-ments results show that the proposed method has perfect predicting effect on financial crisis warning, which provides a powerful crisis warning tool for deciders controlling operating condition of company.
