CAJ | 학술논문

交通事故预测是交通安全评价、规划和决策的基础。针对各种单一灰色预测模型存在的局限性，建立了一种基于最优加权的灰色组合预测模型。根据我国道路交通事故的发展情况，建立了GM（1，1）、Verhulst和SCGM（1，1）c相结合的组合预测模型，运用最优加权法确定组合预测模型的权重系数。利用2001-2007年我国道路交通事故死亡人数的实际值作为原始数据，构建各个单一预测模型和最优组合预测模型，预测其2008-2010年交通事故死亡人数。预测结果表明，组合预测模型比单一GM（1，1）模型、Verhulst模型和SCGM（1，1）c模型具有更高的预测精度。
교통사고예측시교통안전평개、규화화결책적기출。침대각충단일회색예측모형존재적국한성，건립료일충기우최우가권적회색조합예측모형。근거아국도로교통사고적발전정황，건립료GM（1，1）、Verhulst화SCGM（1，1）c상결합적조합예측모형，운용최우가권법학정조합예측모형적권중계수。이용2001-2007년아국도로교통사고사망인수적실제치작위원시수거，구건각개단일예측모형화최우조합예측모형，예측기2008-2010년교통사고사망인수。예측결과표명，조합예측모형비단일GM（1，1）모형、Verhulst모형화SCGM（1，1）c모형구유경고적예측정도。
The prediction of traffic accident is the basis of transportation safety, assessment and decision-making. Aimed at solving the limitations in various single grey forecasting methods, a combined forecasting model of road traffic accidents based on optimal weighted method is put forward. According to the characteristics of traffic accident in China, a model combining GM(1,1), Verhulst and SCGM(1,1)c is established and the weight coefficients of combined forecasting model are determined by optimal weighted method. The deaths of traffic accident in China from 2001 to 2007 are taken as original data to establish forecasting model predicting the deaths of traffic accident from 2008 to 2010. The results demonstrate that the forecast accuracy of combined model is better than that of GM(1,1)model,Verhulst model and SCGM(1,1)c model.