CAJ | 학술논문

为分析光伏电站并网对发电系统可靠性的影响，提出了新的光伏电站多状态可靠性模型。模型根据光伏电站实测数据求得各状态的晴空指数和辐照度波动指标，提出按数据等频划分的原则计算各状态之间的转移概率，并对给定状态下的太阳辐照度进行分时模拟，最后采用序贯蒙特卡洛模拟法评估含光伏电站的发电系统的可靠性。由于考虑了实际太阳辐照度波动特性与晴空指数之间的相关性，状态抽样结果表明，提出的光伏辐照度多状态时序模型更符合实际的天气变化特性。基于RBTS的仿真结果表明，采用此模型的光伏电站可靠性分析相对于直接抽样法的计算结果更精确。
위분석광복전참병망대발전계통가고성적영향，제출료신적광복전참다상태가고성모형。모형근거광복전참실측수거구득각상태적청공지수화복조도파동지표，제출안수거등빈화분적원칙계산각상태지간적전이개솔，병대급정상태하적태양복조도진행분시모의，최후채용서관몽특잡락모의법평고함광복전참적발전계통적가고성。유우고필료실제태양복조도파동특성여청공지수지간적상관성，상태추양결과표명，제출적광복복조도다상태시서모형경부합실제적천기변화특성。기우RBTS적방진결과표명，채용차모형적광복전참가고성분석상대우직접추양법적계산결과경정학。
In order to analyze the reliability of generation system with photovoltaic (PV) station, this paper established a new multi-state model of the PV station. Clearness indexes and irradiance fluctuation indexes of each state were obtained by analysis of the historical data from a PV station. According to the principle of equal frequency division of the data proposed in this paper, transition probability of each state was calculated, and the timing simulation of the solar irradiance for the given state was done. Then sequential Monte Carlo simulation technology was utilized to assess the reliability of generation system with PV station. Because of considering the correlation between the irradiance fluctuation characteristics and clearness index of the actual weather conditions, the results of the state sampling show that multi-state timing model of solar irradiance proposed in this paper is more in line with the actual weather conditions. Simulation results on Roy Billinton test system (RBTS) demonstrate that compared to direct sampling, methods proposed in this paper can get more accurate results in reliability analysis of generation system with PV station.