中山大学学报（自然科学版）
中山大學學報（自然科學版）
중산대학학보（자연과학판）
ACTA SCIENTIARUM NATURALIUM UNIVERSITATIS SUNYATSENI
2013年
5期
140-147,152
,共9页
黄强%陈子遷%刘占明%孔兰
黃彊%陳子遷%劉佔明%孔蘭
황강%진자천%류점명%공란
标准化降水蒸散发指数%旋转经验正交函数%干旱风险%copula函数%多变量区域频率分析%珠江流域
標準化降水蒸散髮指數%鏇轉經驗正交函數%榦旱風險%copula函數%多變量區域頻率分析%珠江流域
표준화강수증산발지수%선전경험정교함수%간한풍험%copula함수%다변량구역빈솔분석%주강류역
standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index%rotated empirical orthogonal function%drought risks%multivariate regional frequency analysis%copula function%the Pearl River basin
利用珠江流域42个气象站点1951-2011年的月降水与气温数据，计算了3个月尺度的标准化降水蒸散发指数，采用旋转经验正交函数时空分解方法，将珠江流域划分成了5个干旱变化特征均质性区域。并根据游程理论选取历时和强度2个特征变量，基于多变量区域频率分析的方法对珠江流域的干旱风险进行了评估。广义正态分布和皮尔逊三型分布分别优选为不同分区的干旱历时边缘分布，广义帕雷托分布优选为干旱强度边缘分布，区域copula函数则分别为Clayton和Arch13 copula。从区域的角度，贺江、桂江、左江和右江流域地区遭遇的干旱风险较大，应视为珠江流域的重点干旱风险区。而从行政管理的角度，广西为干旱风险管理的重点省份。
利用珠江流域42箇氣象站點1951-2011年的月降水與氣溫數據，計算瞭3箇月呎度的標準化降水蒸散髮指數，採用鏇轉經驗正交函數時空分解方法，將珠江流域劃分成瞭5箇榦旱變化特徵均質性區域。併根據遊程理論選取歷時和彊度2箇特徵變量，基于多變量區域頻率分析的方法對珠江流域的榦旱風險進行瞭評估。廣義正態分佈和皮爾遜三型分佈分彆優選為不同分區的榦旱歷時邊緣分佈，廣義帕雷託分佈優選為榦旱彊度邊緣分佈，區域copula函數則分彆為Clayton和Arch13 copula。從區域的角度，賀江、桂江、左江和右江流域地區遭遇的榦旱風險較大，應視為珠江流域的重點榦旱風險區。而從行政管理的角度，廣西為榦旱風險管理的重點省份。
이용주강류역42개기상참점1951-2011년적월강수여기온수거，계산료3개월척도적표준화강수증산발지수，채용선전경험정교함수시공분해방법，장주강류역화분성료5개간한변화특정균질성구역。병근거유정이론선취력시화강도2개특정변량，기우다변량구역빈솔분석적방법대주강류역적간한풍험진행료평고。엄의정태분포화피이손삼형분포분별우선위불동분구적간한력시변연분포，엄의파뢰탁분포우선위간한강도변연분포，구역copula함수칙분별위Clayton화Arch13 copula。종구역적각도，하강、계강、좌강화우강류역지구조우적간한풍험교대，응시위주강류역적중점간한풍험구。이종행정관리적각도，엄서위간한풍험관리적중점성빈。
The 3-month standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index was calculated based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 42 meterological stations in the Pearl River basin from 1951 to 2011.The Pearl River basin was divided into 5 subregions characterized by the variation of drought based on the rotated empirical orthogonal function method.The duration and intensity of drought were selected to be the characteristic variables according to the run theory,and the drought risk assess-ment was made across the Pearl River basin by using a multivariate regional frequency analysis approach. The five subregions divided from the Pearl River basin are all homogeneous,and the goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalized normal and Pearson type Ⅲ distributions are best for the duration as a regional marginal distribution for different subregions,while generalized Parato distribution is best for the intensi-ty.The Clayton copula is the best-fit regional copula for subregions one,three,and five,and the Arch13 copula is best for subregions two and four.Considering the drought return years as a risk,different dis-tricts across the Pearl River basin might suffer different drought risks.From the perspective of region,the districts of Hejiang,Guijiang,Zuojiang and Youjiang River basin will suffer a higher drought risk than others and should be caught enough attention.While from the perspective of administration,Guangxi will be the most dangerous province for all kinds of drought risks.
