电力科学与技术学报
電力科學與技術學報
전력과학여기술학보
JOURNAL OF ELECTRIC POWER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
2014年
1期
55-58
,共4页
微网%神经网络%多重分类器%负荷预测%仿真
微網%神經網絡%多重分類器%負荷預測%倣真
미망%신경망락%다중분류기%부하예측%방진
microgrid%neural network%multiple classifier%load forecasting%simulation
受电力负荷时间变化规律以及气象、节日等因素的影响,微网孤岛运行负荷极具不确定性。如何保证微网系统能够较准确捕捉负荷需求的变化,提高微网系统对负荷变化的跟踪能力,对微网运行的安全性和稳定性及供电质量都具有重要意义。将神经网络与分类器概念相结合,构成多重分类器系统,对微网进行短期负荷预测,仿真实验证明其对负荷用电值预测的准确度明显高于单一分类器系统。
受電力負荷時間變化規律以及氣象、節日等因素的影響,微網孤島運行負荷極具不確定性。如何保證微網繫統能夠較準確捕捉負荷需求的變化,提高微網繫統對負荷變化的跟蹤能力,對微網運行的安全性和穩定性及供電質量都具有重要意義。將神經網絡與分類器概唸相結閤,構成多重分類器繫統,對微網進行短期負荷預測,倣真實驗證明其對負荷用電值預測的準確度明顯高于單一分類器繫統。
수전력부하시간변화규률이급기상、절일등인소적영향,미망고도운행부하겁구불학정성。여하보증미망계통능구교준학포착부하수구적변화,제고미망계통대부하변화적근종능력,대미망운행적안전성화은정성급공전질량도구유중요의의。장신경망락여분류기개념상결합,구성다중분류기계통,대미망진행단기부하예측,방진실험증명기대부하용전치예측적준학도명현고우단일분류기계통。
Due to different power loads composition,the law of load-time varying,and other fac-tors such as weather and festivals,the load of islanded microgrid has some uncertainty.How to ensure the microgrid system accurately capturing the load changes and improving the microgeid system's tracking ability will have great significance on safety,stability and power quality.A short term load forecasting method with neural network combined classifier system was proposed in this paper.Simulation results showed that the method prediction accuracy is significantly high-er than that of the single classifier system based forecasting method.