中国卫生经济
中國衛生經濟
중국위생경제
CHINESE HEALTH ECONOMICS
2014年
2期
56-59
,共4页
人口老龄化%医疗费用%经济增长%预测
人口老齡化%醫療費用%經濟增長%預測
인구노령화%의료비용%경제증장%예측
aging population%medical cost%economic growth%prediction
在未来几十年，随着人口老龄化的加剧，医疗费用将显著增长。文章在超额成本增长模型的基础上对医疗费用的发展趋势进行了预测。首先用超额成本增长以及人口和经济的影响因素构建时间序列模型，然后运用蒙特卡罗方法进行随机模拟，最终得到了我国医疗费用的预测结果。
在未來幾十年，隨著人口老齡化的加劇，醫療費用將顯著增長。文章在超額成本增長模型的基礎上對醫療費用的髮展趨勢進行瞭預測。首先用超額成本增長以及人口和經濟的影響因素構建時間序列模型，然後運用矇特卡囉方法進行隨機模擬，最終得到瞭我國醫療費用的預測結果。
재미래궤십년，수착인구노령화적가극，의료비용장현저증장。문장재초액성본증장모형적기출상대의료비용적발전추세진행료예측。수선용초액성본증장이급인구화경제적영향인소구건시간서렬모형，연후운용몽특잡라방법진행수궤모의，최종득도료아국의료비용적예측결과。
In next several decades, medical costs are going to increase significantly with the obvious increase of ageing population. The development trend of medical cost was predicted on the basis of over-cost growth model. The over-cost growth and the influencing factors of population and economics were first used to construct the time series model, then Monte Carlo approach was used in random simulation and finally the prediction result of medical cost in China was received.
