气候与环境研究
氣候與環境研究
기후여배경연구
CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
2014年
5期
601-613
,共13页
全球海气耦合模式%CMIP5%云南地区%气候预估
全毬海氣耦閤模式%CMIP5%雲南地區%氣候預估
전구해기우합모식%CMIP5%운남지구%기후예고
Global ocean-atmosphere coupled models%CMIP5%Yunnan regions%Climate projection
利用CRU（Climatic Research Unit）高分辨率观测数据及云南省124站资料，检验了参与IPCC AR5（政府间气候变化专门委员会第5次评估报告）的7个全球海气耦合模式（Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 5， CMIP5）及模式集合平均对云南及周边地区气温和降水的模拟性能，同时进行该区域不同温室气体排放量情景下2006～2055年的气候预估。结果表明：全球海气耦合模式对该区域气温和降水气候场空间分布、气温的线性趋势和春、夏季降水的年代际振荡特征具有一定的模拟能力，且模式集合能力优于单一模式，气温模拟优于降水模拟，但春、夏季的降水好于其他季节，使得全年的总降水好于秋、冬两季。对未来情景预估表明，研究区域未来50年气温呈现显著的线性上升趋势，降水量保持年代际振荡特征并有所增加，2020年之前我国云南及其南部区域将经历相对的干旱时期。
利用CRU（Climatic Research Unit）高分辨率觀測數據及雲南省124站資料，檢驗瞭參與IPCC AR5（政府間氣候變化專門委員會第5次評估報告）的7箇全毬海氣耦閤模式（Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 5， CMIP5）及模式集閤平均對雲南及週邊地區氣溫和降水的模擬性能，同時進行該區域不同溫室氣體排放量情景下2006～2055年的氣候預估。結果錶明：全毬海氣耦閤模式對該區域氣溫和降水氣候場空間分佈、氣溫的線性趨勢和春、夏季降水的年代際振盪特徵具有一定的模擬能力，且模式集閤能力優于單一模式，氣溫模擬優于降水模擬，但春、夏季的降水好于其他季節，使得全年的總降水好于鞦、鼕兩季。對未來情景預估錶明，研究區域未來50年氣溫呈現顯著的線性上升趨勢，降水量保持年代際振盪特徵併有所增加，2020年之前我國雲南及其南部區域將經歷相對的榦旱時期。
이용CRU（Climatic Research Unit）고분변솔관측수거급운남성124참자료，검험료삼여IPCC AR5（정부간기후변화전문위원회제5차평고보고）적7개전구해기우합모식（Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 5， CMIP5）급모식집합평균대운남급주변지구기온화강수적모의성능，동시진행해구역불동온실기체배방량정경하2006～2055년적기후예고。결과표명：전구해기우합모식대해구역기온화강수기후장공간분포、기온적선성추세화춘、하계강수적년대제진탕특정구유일정적모의능력，차모식집합능력우우단일모식，기온모의우우강수모의，단춘、하계적강수호우기타계절，사득전년적총강수호우추、동량계。대미래정경예고표명，연구구역미래50년기온정현현저적선성상승추세，강수량보지년대제진탕특정병유소증가，2020년지전아국운남급기남부구역장경력상대적간한시기。
Based on high-resolution CRU (Climatic Research Unit) data and observations at 124 stations in Yunnan Province, the performance of seven global coupled ocean-atmosphere models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 5, CMIP5) from the IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report) in simulating the climatology over Yunnan Province and the surrounding regions was evaluated. The projected change in climate over these regions under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from 2006-2055 was also studied. Results show that global coupled ocean-atmosphere models can simulate the spatial structure of temperature and precipitation climatology, the linear temperature rising trend, and the decadal oscillation characteristics of spring and summer precipitation. The multi-model ensemble (MME) shows better skill than the single model, and the temperature simulation results are better than the precipitation results. Spring and summer precipitation results are superior to those in other seasons, making the total annual mean precipitation simulation results better than those for autumn and winter. Future scenario projections indicate that the temperature over the study regions will show a significant linear rising trend. Precipitation will maintain its decadal oscillation characteristics, and increase over the next 50 years. A few regions, including Yunnan Province and its southern regions, will undergo a drought period before 2020.
