财经理论与实践
財經理論與實踐
재경이론여실천
THE THEORY AND PRACTICE OF FINANCE AND ECONOMICS
2014年
5期
97-101
,共5页
能源价格%传导机制%CGE模型
能源價格%傳導機製%CGE模型
능원개격%전도궤제%CGE모형
Energy price%Transmission mechanism%Computable general equilibrium model
从成本推动的视角出发,将能源放入一般均衡的框架,通过各种嵌套函数、税收和汇率转换等内在机理把价格之间的关系联系起来,对能源价格的传导机制进行理论分析;并将该分析框架纳入可计算一般均衡模型,定量分析能源价格变动的经济效应。研究结果显示,能源价格上涨对宏观经济具有紧缩作用,其中煤电价格对经济增长的紧缩作用比石油大;能源价格上涨导致第二产业内部发生较为明显的差异性变化,说明其对产业结构调整有明显作用,而这样的产业结构调整又会对各产业的耗能和污染排放的减少起到积极作用。
從成本推動的視角齣髮,將能源放入一般均衡的框架,通過各種嵌套函數、稅收和彙率轉換等內在機理把價格之間的關繫聯繫起來,對能源價格的傳導機製進行理論分析;併將該分析框架納入可計算一般均衡模型,定量分析能源價格變動的經濟效應。研究結果顯示,能源價格上漲對宏觀經濟具有緊縮作用,其中煤電價格對經濟增長的緊縮作用比石油大;能源價格上漲導緻第二產業內部髮生較為明顯的差異性變化,說明其對產業結構調整有明顯作用,而這樣的產業結構調整又會對各產業的耗能和汙染排放的減少起到積極作用。
종성본추동적시각출발,장능원방입일반균형적광가,통과각충감투함수、세수화회솔전환등내재궤리파개격지간적관계련계기래,대능원개격적전도궤제진행이론분석;병장해분석광가납입가계산일반균형모형,정량분석능원개격변동적경제효응。연구결과현시,능원개격상창대굉관경제구유긴축작용,기중매전개격대경제증장적긴축작용비석유대;능원개격상창도치제이산업내부발생교위명현적차이성변화,설명기대산업결구조정유명현작용,이저양적산업결구조정우회대각산업적모능화오염배방적감소기도적겁작용。
From the perspective of cost push,this paper analyzed the transmission mechanism of the price of energy based on the price relationship,which was expressed through the internal mechanism of various nested functions,taxes and currency conversion under the general equilibri-um framework.And then,we packaged the price equations into a dynamic computable general e-quilibrium model,and quantitatively analyzed the economic effect of energy price changes.The results showed that,the rise in energy prices had a tightening effect on the macro economy,a-mong which the tightening effect of coal is bigger than oil.Rising energy prices led to an obvious change in the internal structure of the second industry.Increasing the price of energy played posi-tive role in reducing the energy consumption and pollution emissions of industries.