CAJ | 학술논문

针对非平稳农民收入时间序列，采用dmey离散小波进行多层分解，应用Penalize类型软阀值分别对各层的高频分量进行消噪处理，经离散小波逆变换重构得到农民收入时序的趋势成分和周期成分。改革开放以来，农民收入分别以1984、1999两个波峰年以及1992、2006两个波谷年份为分界点，可划分为三个增长周期。农民收入在不同尺度上存在着持续时间分别为3年、8年、15年的短、中、中长周期波动，中长周期表现最为明显，居于主导地位，中周期的影响主要在近十年逐步变得清晰。无论是从收入增长的周期波动还是长期趋势角度看，今后一段时期内的农民增收形势都相对乐观。千方百计继续保持农民收入快速增长的长期趋势，应是今后的工作重点。
침대비평은농민수입시간서렬，채용dmey리산소파진행다층분해，응용Penalize류형연벌치분별대각층적고빈분량진행소조처리，경리산소파역변환중구득도농민수입시서적추세성분화주기성분。개혁개방이래，농민수입분별이1984、1999량개파봉년이급1992、2006량개파곡년빈위분계점，가화분위삼개증장주기。농민수입재불동척도상존재착지속시간분별위3년、8년、15년적단、중、중장주기파동，중장주기표현최위명현，거우주도지위，중주기적영향주요재근십년축보변득청석。무론시종수입증장적주기파동환시장기추세각도간，금후일단시기내적농민증수형세도상대악관。천방백계계속보지농민수입쾌속증장적장기추세，응시금후적공작중점。
For non-stationary time series of farmers’ income, this paper used dmey discrete wavelet to do multiple layers of decom-position, applied Penalize type soft threshold for high-frequency component of denoising of every layer. Clearly, discrete inverse wavelet transform reconstruction could reconstructed the timing of the trend component of farmers ’ income and cyclical components. Since the reform and opening up, farmers’ income growth cycle can be divided into three, they were two peaks respectively in 1984, 1999 and 1992,2006 two years as a demarcation point troughs. Farmers’ income at different scales existed duration of 3 years, 8 years, respectively, 15 years of short, medium and long-cycle fluctuations. Among them, the most obvious is long period. And what is more, the main impact of the cycle gradually become clear in recent years. Therefore, both the revenue growth from cyclical fluctuations or long-term trend perspective, farmers’ income situation in the coming period are relatively optimistic. Do everything possible to maintain the income of farmers long-term trend of rapid growth should be the focus of future work.