CAJ | 학술논문

以县级区划为单位，两年中两次调查了云南省27个县（市）1811户家庭的社会态度，通过项目分析、探索性因素分析和验证性因素分析，得到了群体性事件的社会预警模型，该模型包括6个维度，22个指标，相应调查问卷的内部一致性达到0.763。运用基于熵权的模糊综合评价及K均值聚类方法，构建了××年云南省边疆和少数民族地区的群体性事件社会预警指数，能够区分不同预警警级，对受调查各县（市）预警指数及预警警级进行判定。该年云南省边疆少数民族地区的群体性事件的社会预警平均指数为0.5506，处于中警区；该年抽样调查的16个县（市）中，有1个处于重警区，8个处于中警区，6个处于轻警区，1个处于无警区。采用多种效度检验验证了所构建的社会预警指数的科学性与有效性。
이현급구화위단위，량년중량차조사료운남성27개현（시）1811호가정적사회태도，통과항목분석、탐색성인소분석화험증성인소분석，득도료군체성사건적사회예경모형，해모형포괄6개유도，22개지표，상응조사문권적내부일치성체도0.763。운용기우적권적모호종합평개급K균치취류방법，구건료××년운남성변강화소수민족지구적군체성사건사회예경지수，능구구분불동예경경급，대수조사각현（시）예경지수급예경경급진행판정。해년운남성변강소수민족지구적군체성사건적사회예경평균지수위0.5506，처우중경구；해년추양조사적16개현（시）중，유1개처우중경구，8개처우중경구，6개처우경경구，1개처우무경구。채용다충효도검험험증료소구건적사회예경지수적과학성여유효성。
Through public social attitudes survey of 1811families in 27 counties of Yunnan province in two years,and the item analysis,exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis,constructed was a social early-warning model of group e-vents,which includes 6 dimensions,22 indicators,with the internal consistency of 0.763 between the relevant questionnaires applied.Moreover,a social early-warning index of group events in border ethnic areas of Yunnan province in 2009 was built by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on entropy weight and the K-means clustering method,which could distinguish different early-warning levels and evaluate early-warning index of relevant counties.By the above empirical analysis we had the follow-ing findings:the social early-warning average index of group events in border ethnic regions of Yunnan is 0.5506 in 2009, which lies in middle warning level.Among the 16 counties surveyed,one lies in the high level of warning,8 middle level,6 low level and one 0 level.The scientific nature and validity of the social early-warning index constructed is confirmed by many kinds of validity examinations.