CAJ | 학술논문

随着中国经济的增长，苹果贸易总量逐年增加，2004年起中国成为全球第一大苹果出口国。运用修正的引力模型，通过需求因素、供给因素与贸易阻力因素，对中国苹果在主要出口目的国或地区的贸易潜力进行分析研究。由于贸易潜力受人均收入影响很大，中国与以英、法两国为代表的许多发达国家有较大的贸易潜力。然而，由于受购买力不足影响，中国对其周边发展水平相对低下的国家，如哈萨克斯坦、尼泊尔等出现贸易过剩，其次，由于美国、加拿大两国的苹果生产量较大，中国对其出口也处于过剩状态。
수착중국경제적증장，평과무역총량축년증가，2004년기중국성위전구제일대평과출구국。운용수정적인력모형，통과수구인소、공급인소여무역조력인소，대중국평과재주요출구목적국혹지구적무역잠력진행분석연구。유우무역잠력수인균수입영향흔대，중국여이영、법량국위대표적허다발체국가유교대적무역잠력。연이，유우수구매력불족영향，중국대기주변발전수평상대저하적국가，여합살극사탄、니박이등출현무역과잉，기차，유우미국、가나대량국적평과생산량교대，중국대기출구야처우과잉상태。
As China's apple trade increasing with the economic growth, China has been the largest apple exporter in the world since 2004. The authors applied the modified gravity model to analyze the trade potential of China's apple in main export countries and regions by analyzing the factors of supply, demand and trade resistance. In conclusion, the trade potential between China and some developed countries, such as Britain and France, is superior, strongly influenced by per capita income. Otherwise, because of insufficient purchasing power, the trade between China and her neighbors, whose developing level is relatively low, witnesses the surplus, including Kazakhstan and Nepal, etc.. Also, the apple productions in America and Canada are enough, so there is a trade surplus between China and the two countries.