CAJ | 학술논문

针对 IT 项目进度基线定义质量普遍偏低的问题，提出了一种资源约束条件下基于蒙特卡洛模拟的进度风险量化评估方法。首先，考虑资源对进度的限制问题，提出资源约束条件下的活动历时抽样方法；其次，提出在活动历时随机变化情况下，项目关键路径动态识别方法，研究项目工期概率分布问题。最后，通过实例表明，资源约束条件下的蒙特卡洛模拟方法，能够有效地评估IT项目中的进度风险，辅助项目决策。
침대 IT 항목진도기선정의질량보편편저적문제，제출료일충자원약속조건하기우몽특잡락모의적진도풍험양화평고방법。수선，고필자원대진도적한제문제，제출자원약속조건하적활동력시추양방법；기차，제출재활동력시수궤변화정황하，항목관건로경동태식별방법，연구항목공기개솔분포문제。최후，통과실례표명，자원약속조건하적몽특잡락모의방법，능구유효지평고IT항목중적진도풍험，보조항목결책。
Given the generally low quality of Production Development schedule baseline definition, an evaluation method of project schedule risk quantification based on Monte Carlo simulation under the conditions of resource constraints is proposed. Firstly, considering the resource constraints on the progress, an activity duration sampling method under resource constraints is proposed. Secondly, to study the probability distribution of project duration, a method to recognize the critical path to a project dynamically is proposed under the random change in the activity duration. Finally, examples will show that Monte Carlo simulation methods under resource constraints can assess the progress risk of IT project effectively and support the project decision-making.