CAJ | 학술논문

为了研究电网故障的内在动力学机理，以广东电网为例研究了电网故障时间间隔序列的统计分布及非线性特征。首先检验和分析了2000年8月-2013年4月电网故障的统计分布特性，结果表明电网发生故障的时间间隔具有阵发和厚尾现象，近似满足幂律分布。然后应用R/S(rescaled range analysis)和SWV(scaled windowed variance)2种Hurst指数分析方法，求得广东电网故障时间间隔序列的 Hurst 指数，分别为0.86701和0.97414，两者均显著地接近1，结论具有一致性。这揭示了电网发生故障的时间间隔不仅是非随机的，而且具有强的长程正相关性和自相似性。研究故障的时间间隔特征可以为电网进行风险预测和风险评估提供决策依据。
위료연구전망고장적내재동역학궤리，이엄동전망위례연구료전망고장시간간격서렬적통계분포급비선성특정。수선검험화분석료2000년8월-2013년4월전망고장적통계분포특성，결과표명전망발생고장적시간간격구유진발화후미현상，근사만족멱률분포。연후응용R/S(rescaled range analysis)화SWV(scaled windowed variance)2충Hurst지수분석방법，구득엄동전망고장시간간격서렬적 Hurst 지수，분별위0.86701화0.97414，량자균현저지접근1，결론구유일치성。저게시료전망발생고장적시간간격불부시비수궤적，이차구유강적장정정상관성화자상사성。연구고장적시간간격특정가이위전망진행풍험예측화풍험평고제공결책의거。
Electric power grid is an artificial complex system for transmitting and interchanging energy, where the blackouts are usually caused by various small faults. To study the internal dynamics mechanism of power grid faults, taking Guangdong power grid as example the statistical distribution and nonlinear characteristic analysis of fault time intervals of power grid is researched. Firstly, the statistical distribution characteristics of power grid faults occurred from Aug. 2000 to Apr. 2013 are verified and analyzed, and analysis results show that the fault time intervals possess the features of intermittency and heavy-tail, and approximately distribute according to power-law distribution. Utilizing two Hurst exponent analysis methods, namely the rescaled range analysis (R/S) method and the scaled windowed variance (SWV) method, the Hurst exponents of fault time intervals of Guangndong power grid are solved, they are 0.867 01 and 0.97414 respectively and evidently close to 1, so they are of consistency. It reveals that the fault time intervals of power grid are not only non-random, but also possess strong positive correlation and self-similarity. The research on fault time intervals can provide decision foundation for risk prediction and risk assessment of power grid.