CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规天气资料和数值预报产品，应用天气分析和诊断分析方法，对2011年3月31日-4月2日卢氏县出现的寒潮天气过程进行分析，结果表明：本次寒潮属小槽东移发展型。500hPa图上，新地岛附近的冷中心低于-40℃，温度槽落后于高度槽，南、北槽同位相合并加强使不稳定小槽发展成东亚大槽；位于河套的暖倒槽和江淮气旋的形成，有利于寒潮冷锋加速南下；强盛的冷平流和地面前期暖倒槽，为强降温提供了有利的温度条件。单站气象要素对寒潮反映较好，不论是气压、气温及其距平的变化，还是过程前气温回升，都是寒潮预报的重要指标。EC850hPa温度场的预报，对判断能否产生寒潮天气有很好的指示作用。850hPa强冷平流，是产生寒潮天气的主要原因。
이용상규천기자료화수치예보산품，응용천기분석화진단분석방법，대2011년3월31일-4월2일로씨현출현적한조천기과정진행분석，결과표명：본차한조속소조동이발전형。500hPa도상，신지도부근적랭중심저우-40℃，온도조락후우고도조，남、북조동위상합병가강사불은정소조발전성동아대조；위우하투적난도조화강회기선적형성，유리우한조랭봉가속남하；강성적랭평류화지면전기난도조，위강강온제공료유리적온도조건。단참기상요소대한조반영교호，불론시기압、기온급기거평적변화，환시과정전기온회승，도시한조예보적중요지표。EC850hPa온도장적예보，대판단능부산생한조천기유흔호적지시작용。850hPa강랭평류，시산생한조천기적주요원인。
Based on the conventional weather data and numerical forecast products, with weather analysis and diagnostic analysis method, the weather process of cold wave occurred in Lushi from March 31 to April 2, 2011 were analyzed. The results showed that： the cold wave is small trough eastward development type. On 500 hPa map, cold center near Novaya Zemlya is lower than -40 莫爱勰 , the temperature trough is behind height trough, the same phase of south trough and north trough merge and strengthen to make unstable small groove into the East Asia major trough. The formation the warm inverted trough located in Hetao and Changjiang-huaihe cyclone will help the cold wave cold front to accelerate southward. The strong cold advection and surface prophase warm inverted trough provided favorable temperature conditions for the strong cooling temperature. The single station meteorological elements reflect well on the cold wave, regardless of the pressure, temperature and anomalies changes, or process before the rise of temperature are important indicators of cold wave forecast. The forecasting of EC 850 hPa temperature field has good indication to judge whether the cold weather or not; the strung cold adveetion at 850 hPa is the main reason for cold wave weather.