中国全科医学
中國全科醫學
중국전과의학
CHINESE GENERAL PRACTICE
2014年
18期
2130-2131,2132
,共3页
ROC曲线%雌二醇%预测%妊娠初期%妊娠结局
ROC麯線%雌二醇%預測%妊娠初期%妊娠結跼
ROC곡선%자이순%예측%임신초기%임신결국
ROC curve%Estradiol%Forecasting%Pregnancy trimester,first%Pregnancy outcome
目的：应用受试者工作特征（ ROC）曲线评价血清雌二醇在妊娠早期预测宫内妊娠结局的临床价值。方法选择2013年1-5月在广东医学院附属陈星海医院妇产科就诊的早期宫内单胎（4~6周）孕妇114例，根据最后妊娠结局分为正常妊娠组52例和稽留流产组62例，检测血清雌二醇水平，应用ROC曲线对雌二醇水平进行统计学分析。结果正常妊娠组血清雌二醇水平高于稽留流产组〔704（482）μg/L与192（250）μg/L，U ＝442.5，P ＝0.000〕。血清雌二醇水平判断正常妊娠与稽留流产的ROC曲线下面积为0.863，最佳临界值为242μg/L，此时敏感度为0.942、特异度为0.645、阳性预测值为0.690、阴性预测值为0.930、阳性似然比为2.654、阴性似然比为0.089、漏诊率为0.058。结论血清雌二醇水平可用于预测早期宫内妊娠的结局，其最佳临界值为242μg/L，具有较高的阴性预测值，可有效地预测稽留流产。
目的：應用受試者工作特徵（ ROC）麯線評價血清雌二醇在妊娠早期預測宮內妊娠結跼的臨床價值。方法選擇2013年1-5月在廣東醫學院附屬陳星海醫院婦產科就診的早期宮內單胎（4~6週）孕婦114例，根據最後妊娠結跼分為正常妊娠組52例和稽留流產組62例，檢測血清雌二醇水平，應用ROC麯線對雌二醇水平進行統計學分析。結果正常妊娠組血清雌二醇水平高于稽留流產組〔704（482）μg/L與192（250）μg/L，U ＝442.5，P ＝0.000〕。血清雌二醇水平判斷正常妊娠與稽留流產的ROC麯線下麵積為0.863，最佳臨界值為242μg/L，此時敏感度為0.942、特異度為0.645、暘性預測值為0.690、陰性預測值為0.930、暘性似然比為2.654、陰性似然比為0.089、漏診率為0.058。結論血清雌二醇水平可用于預測早期宮內妊娠的結跼，其最佳臨界值為242μg/L，具有較高的陰性預測值，可有效地預測稽留流產。
목적：응용수시자공작특정（ ROC）곡선평개혈청자이순재임신조기예측궁내임신결국적림상개치。방법선택2013년1-5월재엄동의학원부속진성해의원부산과취진적조기궁내단태（4~6주）잉부114례，근거최후임신결국분위정상임신조52례화계류유산조62례，검측혈청자이순수평，응용ROC곡선대자이순수평진행통계학분석。결과정상임신조혈청자이순수평고우계류유산조〔704（482）μg/L여192（250）μg/L，U ＝442.5，P ＝0.000〕。혈청자이순수평판단정상임신여계류유산적ROC곡선하면적위0.863，최가림계치위242μg/L，차시민감도위0.942、특이도위0.645、양성예측치위0.690、음성예측치위0.930、양성사연비위2.654、음성사연비위0.089、루진솔위0.058。결론혈청자이순수평가용우예측조기궁내임신적결국，기최가림계치위242μg/L，구유교고적음성예측치，가유효지예측계류유산。
Objective To evaluate the clinical value of serum estradiol level in predicting pregnancy outcome during early intrauterine pregnancy by applying receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve. Methods A total of 114 women with early monovular pregnancy( four to six weeks)admitted to Chen Xinghai Hospital Affiliated to Guangdong Medical College from January to May 2013 were selected and divided into normal pregnancy groups(n=52)and missed abortion groups(n=62)ac-cording to pregnancy outcome,and their serum estradiol levels were assayed and compared between the two groups,and then the statistics were analyzed by ROC curve. Results The serum level of estradiol in normal pregnancy group〔704(482)μg/L〕was significantly higher than that in missed abortion group〔192(250)μg/L〕,and the difference was statistically significant(U=442. 5,P=0. 000). The area under the ROC curve of serum estradiol in judging normal intrauterine pregnancy and missed abor-tion was 0. 863. The best threshold was 242 μg/L. In this case,the sensitivity,specificity,PPV,NPV,+LR and -LR were 0. 942,0. 645,0. 690,0. 930,2. 654 and 0. 089 respectively,and the omitting rate was 0. 058. Conclusion The level of ser-um estradiol can be used to predict pregnancy outcome during early intrauterine pregnancy. The best threshold is 242 μg/L. It has high negative predictive value and could be effectively used to predict missed abortion.
