CAJ | 학술논문

以2004年和2009年两期的八达岭林场林相图以及森林资源二类调查数据为基础，在Arcgis9．3软件平台上进行空间信息建立和处理，利用景观格局指数和转移矩阵法分析了八达岭林场森林景观格局的动态变化，并利用马尔可夫模型对未来10年（至2019年）森林景观类型动态变化趋势进行了定量预测，为八达岭林场森林景观规划提供基本依据。结果表明：八达岭林场森林景观类型变化的主要特征为阔叶林面积总量减少，针叶林和混交林面积总量增加，疏林地类型消失；景观破碎化程度有所改善，各景观类型趋向于更加均匀合理的方向发展；预计至2019年八达岭林场灌木林仍然占主导地位，阔叶林会继续减少。
이2004년화2009년량기적팔체령림장림상도이급삼림자원이류조사수거위기출，재Arcgis9．3연건평태상진행공간신식건립화처리，이용경관격국지수화전이구진법분석료팔체령림장삼림경관격국적동태변화，병이용마이가부모형대미래10년（지2019년）삼림경관류형동태변화추세진행료정량예측，위팔체령림장삼림경관규화제공기본의거。결과표명：팔체령림장삼림경관류형변화적주요특정위활협림면적총량감소，침협림화혼교림면적총량증가，소임지류형소실；경관파쇄화정도유소개선，각경관류형추향우경가균균합리적방향발전；예계지2019년팔체령림장관목림잉연점주도지위，활협림회계속감소。
Based on the data of forest resource management survey in Badaling forest farm in the period from 2004 and 2009,the forest landscape pattern map was obtained on the platform of Arcgis 9.3 which was used as the spatial information processing tool .The dynamic analysis of forest landscape pattern in Badaling for-est farm was conducted by the landscape pattern index and transfer matrix method .The Markov model was used to predict the trends of forest landscape types in the subsequent ten years .It provided the fundamental basis for the landscape planning of Badaling forest farm .The result indicated that the primary characteristics of forest landscape types were as follows:the areas of coniferous forest and mixed forest increased ,the area of broad-leaved forest decreased ,the open forest land disappeared , fragmentation degree of forest landscape improved , and the evenness of the landscape types showed a rational trend .It is predicted that the total areas of shrub wood will still be the main type and the area of broad-leaved forest will decrease by 2019.