合肥工业大学学报（社会科学版）
閤肥工業大學學報（社會科學版）
합비공업대학학보（사회과학판）
JOURNAL OF HEFEI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY(SOCIAL SCIENCES)
2014年
5期
41-48
,共8页
汽车保有量%Logistic模型%灰色预测%组合预测
汽車保有量%Logistic模型%灰色預測%組閤預測
기차보유량%Logistic모형%회색예측%조합예측
car ow nership%Logistic model%grey forecast%combination forecast
国内外对中国汽车保有量预测的研究很多，但由于各种假设不同而偏差较大。组合预测方法的出现，结合了不同预测方法的优点，提高了预测精度。文章运用Logistic模型拟合中国汽车保有量的增长，将其增长期划分为三个阶段，低速增长期，快速增长期，平稳增长期，以此指导灰色预测合理选取数据，对中国的汽车保有量进行短期预测。该预测方法只涉及市场最大汽车保有量的估计，尽可能地避免了传统预测模型中预测参数选取主观化的缺点。预测结果显示我国汽车保有量已经进入快速增长期，2015年将突破1亿9千万辆。
國內外對中國汽車保有量預測的研究很多，但由于各種假設不同而偏差較大。組閤預測方法的齣現，結閤瞭不同預測方法的優點，提高瞭預測精度。文章運用Logistic模型擬閤中國汽車保有量的增長，將其增長期劃分為三箇階段，低速增長期，快速增長期，平穩增長期，以此指導灰色預測閤理選取數據，對中國的汽車保有量進行短期預測。該預測方法隻涉及市場最大汽車保有量的估計，儘可能地避免瞭傳統預測模型中預測參數選取主觀化的缺點。預測結果顯示我國汽車保有量已經進入快速增長期，2015年將突破1億9韆萬輛。
국내외대중국기차보유량예측적연구흔다，단유우각충가설불동이편차교대。조합예측방법적출현，결합료불동예측방법적우점，제고료예측정도。문장운용Logistic모형의합중국기차보유량적증장，장기증장기화분위삼개계단，저속증장기，쾌속증장기，평은증장기，이차지도회색예측합리선취수거，대중국적기차보유량진행단기예측。해예측방법지섭급시장최대기차보유량적고계，진가능지피면료전통예측모형중예측삼수선취주관화적결점。예측결과현시아국기차보유량이경진입쾌속증장기，2015년장돌파1억9천만량。
There are lots of researches on Chinese car ownership forecasting at home and abroad ,but due to the different assumptions different conclusions have been made .The combination forecasting method that combines the advantages of different forecasting methods improves the accuracy of fore-casting .In this paper ,Logistic model is used to simulate the grow th of car ow nership in China ,w hich is divided into three stages including stage of slow grow th ,stage of rapid grow th and stage of steady grow th ,to help to select the rational data to make short-term forecast on China's car ow nership by grey forecast .This forecasting method only considers the forecast of the largest car ownership allowed by the market ,w hich avoids the shortcomings of the subjective parameter selection of traditional fore-casting models as much as possible .The results show that the car ownership in China has entered a period of rapid grow th and will exceed 190 million units in 2015 .
