CAJ | 학술논문

研究上市银行的盈余管理行为对分析商业银行的安全性、流动性和盈利性均有着非常重要的支撑作用。文章选取2009、2010、2011年上市银行相关数据，使用二分类 Logistic回归模型对上市银行实现正向盈余意外的影响因素进行了研究。发现上市银行的资本安全性越低，规模越小；机构持股比例越低，利润水平越高；不良贷款变动率越小，越倾向采取措施实现正向盈余意外。
연구상시은행적영여관리행위대분석상업은행적안전성、류동성화영리성균유착비상중요적지탱작용。문장선취2009、2010、2011년상시은행상관수거，사용이분류 Logistic회귀모형대상시은행실현정향영여의외적영향인소진행료연구。발현상시은행적자본안전성월저，규모월소；궤구지고비례월저，리윤수평월고；불량대관변동솔월소，월경향채취조시실현정향영여의외。
The research on the earnings management behavior of listed banks is very important for ana-lyzing the safety ,liquidity and profitability of commercial banks .By using the data of listed banks in 2009 ,2010 and 2011 ,this paper studies the factors influencing the achievement of positive earnings surprises in listed banks based on the binary Logistic regression model .The results show that the lis-ted banks with smaller size ,lower capital security ,lower proportion of institutional ownership ,high-er profit level ,or lower rate of change in non-performing loans ,tend to achieve positive earnings sur-prises .