CAJ | 학술논문

干部队伍结构的好坏直接决定着部队战斗力水平的高低，因此预测干部队伍结构变化趋势，对干部管理工作过程中方针政策的制定，干部管理工作的有效开展都有着十分重要的意义。该文通过建立干部队伍数学模型，利用蒙特卡洛方法模拟干部的退役、更替、补充，通过年度数据仿真来预测干部队伍的变化，为干部的结构调整提供指导。该文研究的方法是依据干部政策、根据干部编制、结合干部历史数据，利用蒙特卡洛方法计算得出干部的退役人员、更替人数、补充人数，对整个干部状态进行动态仿真模拟。
간부대오결구적호배직접결정착부대전두력수평적고저，인차예측간부대오결구변화추세，대간부관리공작과정중방침정책적제정，간부관리공작적유효개전도유착십분중요적의의。해문통과건립간부대오수학모형，이용몽특잡락방법모의간부적퇴역、경체、보충，통과년도수거방진래예측간부대오적변화，위간부적결구조정제공지도。해문연구적방법시의거간부정책、근거간부편제、결합간부역사수거，이용몽특잡락방법계산득출간부적퇴역인원、경체인수、보충인수，대정개간부상태진행동태방진모의。
The quality of cadres structure directly determines the level of combat effectiveness, hence predicting structure change trends has great meaning , which is used for constituting and implementing policy formulation. Through establishing mathemati-cal models of cadres, this paper researches that how to work out the retirement, promotion and recruitment of cadres, to analyze the change of the structure of the cadres using emulating the allocation with the Monte Carlo method and. The method of this re-search need work out the amount of the retirement, promotion and recruitment, which is based on cadres policy, cadres prepara-tion and historical statistics data of cadres,. The whole dynamic simulation is used with Monte Carlo according to cadre prepara-tion and cadre policy.