CAJ | 학술논문

科学合理的预测轨道交通客流状况已成为轨道交通系统决策中面临的重大课题，需要在实践中不断积累、完善和提高。根据广州市轨道交通运营资料，从网络、线路、车站三个层面探讨轨道交通从单线向网络转变过程中的客流特征和成长规律，为客流预测模型的参数选择提供参考。分析发现：随着轨道交通网络的扩展，客运强度边际效应递减、换乘系数增大、平均运距增长；从线到网，换乘客流成为客流增长的主要来源；不同类型车站的客流特征差异较大，预测时应分类考虑。
과학합리적예측궤도교통객류상황이성위궤도교통계통결책중면림적중대과제，수요재실천중불단적루、완선화제고。근거엄주시궤도교통운영자료，종망락、선로、차참삼개층면탐토궤도교통종단선향망락전변과정중적객류특정화성장규률，위객류예측모형적삼수선택제공삼고。분석발현：수착궤도교통망락적확전，객운강도변제효응체감、환승계수증대、평균운거증장；종선도망，환승객류성위객류증장적주요래원；불동류형차참적객류특정차이교대，예측시응분류고필。
Rail transit passenger flow forecasting has become one of the major tasks during rail transit system decision making and deserves continuous improvement in practice. Based on the rail transit operation data in Guangzhou, this paper analyzes the passenger flow characteris-tics and increasing trends during the development of rail transit from a single line to network in three aspects:network, lines and stations so as to provide reference for calibrating passenger flow forecasting models. The results show that: 1) With the expansion of urban rail transit net-work, the marginal effect of passenger demand is diminishing while the transfer rate and the average travel distance are increasing;2) Trans-fer passenger flows become the main source contributing to passenger flow growth from a single line to network;and 3) Different types of sta-tions have quite different passenger flow characteristics deserving re-spective consideration in forecasting.