CAJ | 학술논문

分析10年来上海市轨道交通网络化发展过程中的客流变化特征，主要体现为：换乘系数增加、平均运距缩短、既有线路出现客流突变、郊区线客运强度低和客流增长缓慢等。从网络化角度提出未来上海市轨道交通发展的几点启示，包括分散式换乘设计和客流组织以疏解换乘客流、合理增设折返站和适时制定既有线路增能计划、新线分段开通应该至少衔接两条既有线路或至少拥有两座换乘站、郊区线路应该采取区别于市区的轨道制式提供服务等。最后，提出未来上海市轨道交通的发展要侧重于满足功能层次和客流效率的双重要求。
분석10년래상해시궤도교통망락화발전과정중적객류변화특정，주요체현위：환승계수증가、평균운거축단、기유선로출현객류돌변、교구선객운강도저화객류증장완만등。종망락화각도제출미래상해시궤도교통발전적궤점계시，포괄분산식환승설계화객류조직이소해환승객류、합리증설절반참화괄시제정기유선로증능계화、신선분단개통응해지소함접량조기유선로혹지소옹유량좌환승참、교구선로응해채취구별우시구적궤도제식제공복무등。최후，제출미래상해시궤도교통적발전요측중우만족공능층차화객류효솔적쌍중요구。
This paper first analyzes the characteristics of pas-senger flow in the development of rail transit network in the past ten years in Shanghai including the increase of transfer rate, reduction of average travel distances, significant changes of passenger flows at existing rail lines, low passenger demand and slow passenger growth of suburban lines. Then the paper provides suggestions on the future development of rail transit network in Shanghai in several aspects:transfer design and pas-senger organization to mitigate transfer flow, proper addition of switch stations and development plans for increasing the ca-pacity of existing rail transit lines, opening new lines to con-nect at least two existing lines or to have at least two transfer stations, different service provision for suburban lines, and etc. Finally, the paper points out that future rail transit development in Shanghai should focus on functionality and efficiency.