CAJ | 학술논문

大城市网络购物市场的趋于饱和使得对中小城镇网络购物市场的进一步开拓成为拓展中国网络购物市场的主要方向。通过构建中小城镇网络购物市场影响因素指标体系，引入交叉影响分析法（Cross-Impact Analy-sis，简称CIA）对此进行分析，并借助马尔柯夫链的预测概念修正了各影响因素在交叉影响之后的概率，从而得出结论：消费者因素和物流因素是影响中小城镇网络购物市场发展的主要因素。
대성시망락구물시장적추우포화사득대중소성진망락구물시장적진일보개탁성위탁전중국망락구물시장적주요방향。통과구건중소성진망락구물시장영향인소지표체계，인입교차영향분석법（Cross-Impact Analy-sis，간칭CIA）대차진행분석，병차조마이가부련적예측개념수정료각영향인소재교차영향지후적개솔，종이득출결론：소비자인소화물류인소시영향중소성진망락구물시장발전적주요인소。
Online shopping market tends to saturation in big cities,making further development of online shopping market for small and medium-sized towns become the main direction of developing Chinese online shopping market.Based on the construction of index system for the influencing factors,introducing the Cross-Impact Analysis method,and using the con-cept of Markov chain prediction to correct the probability of the influencing factors’after cross influence,we draw the con-clusion that the consumer and logistics factors are the main factors that affect the development of small and medium-sized towns’online shopping market.